MICHEÁL MARTIN has overtaken Brian Lenihan as the most popular successor to Brian Cowen as leader of Fianna Fáil, according to the latest Irish Times/Ipsos MRBI poll.
This represents a substantial shift in opinion since the last Irish Timespoll in September which showed Mr Lenihan with a lead of more than two to one over Mr Martin.
The turnaround has happened in the wake of the EU-IMF bailout, the Budget and further bad news about the banks, all of which have clearly affected Mr Lenihan’s popularity.
When people were asked who should succeed Mr Cowen if he steps down as party leader after a general election, the result, compared with the last Irish Timespoll on September 30th, was: Mary Hanafin, 12 per cent (up four points); Brian Lenihan, 25 per cent (down 14 points); Micheál Martin, 28 per cent (up 10 points); Others, 12 per cent (up one point); and Don't Know, 23 per cent (up one point).
Dermot Ahern, who was included in the last poll, has since announced that he is retiring from politics.
The Irish Times/Ipsos MRBI poll was taken on Monday and Tuesday of this week among a representative sample of 1,000 voters, aged 18 and over, in face-to-face interviews at 100 sampling points in all 43 constituencies. The margin of error is plus or minus 3 per cent.
On the leadership issue there is a substantial difference in the attitude of Fianna Fáil voters and the wider electorate.
Among Fianna Fáil voters Mr Lenihan still has a commanding lead with 47 per cent of them backing him,compared to 29 per cent who support Mr Martin and 8 per cent who opt for Ms Hanafin.
A substantial majority of voters would like to see Mr Cowen stepping down as leader of Fianna Fáil before the election but this finding is broadly similar to the last poll, with a further slight increase in the number who would like to see the Taoiseach quit.
Among Fianna Fáil voters the mood is different, with 58 per cent of people saying they would like to see him leading the party into the election and 35 per cent saying that they would like to see Mr Cowen stepping down.
When voters were asked who they would like to see as taoiseach if a Fine Gael-Labour Government was formed after the election, Eamon Gilmore comes out ahead of Enda Kenny.
Mr Gilmore’s lead over his Fine Gael rival has declined a little since the last poll. The result was Mr Kenny 28 per cent (up two points) and Mr Gilmore 43 per cent (down five points).
The poll also shows that a clear majority of voters are in favour of abandoning the Croke Park agreement which protects public servants from further pay cuts.
Asked whether the agreement on pay and productivity in the public service should be abandoned or not, 44 per cent say it should be abandoned, 24 per cent say it should not be abandoned and 32 per cent don’t know.
There is a wide difference between public servants and those employed by the private sector on the issue.
