Poll points to coalition after next election

THE Fianna Fail leader, Mr Bertie Ahern, and his party have experienced a drop in their ratings in the latest Irish Times/MRBI opinion poll, published today. Mr Ahern's standing has dropped by five percentage points, while Fianna Fail's core support has decreased by four percentage points, to 36 per cent, over the summer months.

The level of undecided voters, at 22 per cent, has already reached pre election campaign proportions with up to a year to go before voting day.

The Labour Party's decline in support may have bottomed out, with its core vote up by two percentage points since June. But Fine Gael's core support has dropped by three percentage points in the same period.

The poll, which was conducted among a national quota sample of 1,000 voters at 100 sampling points throughout all constituencies in the State last Tuesday and Wednesday, is being seen as the first in the series leading up to the next election. The initial bout of electioneering began when the parties started debating their preferences for coalition partners during the Dail's recess in August.

The narrowing of the support margins between the parties and the huge increase in undecided voters - one fifth of the electorate - are the main findings of the poll.

When the 22 per cent of undecideds are excluded, the state of the parties is: Fianna Fail 45 per cent, down two points since June; Fine Gael 25 per cent, down one; Labour 13 per cent, up three; Progressive Democrats 6 per cent, down one; Democratic Left 2 per cent, unchanged; Green Party 3 per cent, unchanged; Others 6 per cent, up one.

The core support for the different parties gives a sharper indicator of current trends. The results are: Fianna Fail 36 per cent, down four points in three months; Fine Gael 20 per cent, down three; Labour 10 per cent, up two; PDs 5 per cent, down one; DL 2 per cent, up one; Green Party 2 per cent, down one; Others 3 per cent, down two; and undecided 22 per cent, upright.

There has been a shift, too, in the personal ratings of the party leaders. Although the PD leader, Ms Mary Harney, has the highest satisfaction level - 56 per cent - her rating has dropped by six points over the summer. The level of satisfaction with Mr Ahern, at 52 per cent, marks a five point drop over the same period.

Turning to the Coalition leaders, Mr Bruton's rating has dropped by two points to 54 per cent; Mr Spring's has dropped by one point to 51 per cent; and Mr De Rossa's rating has increased by two points to 43 per cent.

The level of satisfaction with the Government's performance remains fairly static: 43 per cent, compared to 42 per cent three months ago.

The biggest challenge now facing all the parties is how to win over the floating vote. The "new" undecideds, according to the findings, are largely the under 35s, mostly women and middle class.

The poll, overall, tells the Dail leaders what they already know that the next government, like all governments since 1989, will comprise a coalition of parties.