THE BRITISH Prime Minister, Mr Major, received a dramatic poll boost yesterday, on the eve of a Queen's Speech designed to put further "dear blue water" between the Conservatives and Labour.
The latest NOP poll showed Labour's lead closing to 14 points, from 23, prompting strategists on both sides to admit a potential turning point as the countdown to the general election campaign begins.
At Wednesday's state opening of the final parliamentary session, Queen Elizabeth will announce a government programme, on education, crime and health, designed to turn the heat on Mr Tony Blair, obliging him to either support policies popular with target Tory voters or alienate his own left wing.
And amid continuing speculation that the Chancellor of the Exchequer, Mr Kenneth Clarke, plans tax cuts of between £2 billion and £4 billion in next month's budget, the former Conservative chairman Mr Chris Patten yesterday urged Mr Major to replay the 1992 "double whammy" campaign against Labour over the economy.
Mr Patten, now Governor of Hong Kong, told Sir David Frost that the economy remained the issue which could tip the election scales in Mr Major's favour.
Asked whether the Tories could restore the "umbilical link" between economic and political recovery, Mr Patten said: "If I was either Tony Blair or John Major that would be the issue that would most interest me, it was John Major I would be trying to make sure that the umbilical link still existed. And if I was Tony Blair I would be trying to make sure that it didn't.
"That's the key ingredient. In the American presidential election, to borrow from President Clinton, It's the economy, stupid. It's the economy that's making him (Clinton) so difficult to defeat."
With official figures due this week to forecast a "mini boom" in which growth will rise to 4 per cent next year, yesterday's poll for the Sunday Times suggested ministers were recovering their reputation for economic competence. Among women voters, more reluctant to pledge to Labour, the party's lead on perceived economic competence is just five points.
Among the so called AB voters, the well off middle classes, the Tories are apparently 34 points ahead, up 11 points, suggesting mounting worry that a Labour government would increase taxes. And while Labour still retains an overall lead on perceived economic competence, the NOP findings show this dropping from 21 to 12 points.
A year ago, following the party conference season, Labour enjoyed a 30 point lead. While Labour retains its lead among the C1 white collar workers, this too has dropped from 12 to nine points. And while Mr Major lags behind Mr Blair in terms of strength of leadership, the NOP poll shows the Prime Minister ahead of his rival on "sincerity".
There was more good news for the government when the Snowdrop anti handgun campaign dropped its threat to field a candidate against the Scottish Secretary, Mr Michael Forsythe, in the election.
Snowdrop's co founder, Ms Ann Pearston, said the need for such a tactic had receded given Labour's commitment to implement a total ban on handguns. It would not make sense for me to stand or field candidates in seats that would draw votes from the Labour Party," she said.
Meanwhile as Mr Forsythe signalled a possible drive against film and video violence as the next stage of the campaign against the gun culture Mr Major continued his battle with Mr Blair for the high moral ground by claiming that conservatism "flows from the Christian faith".