Some Government ministers have privately expressed doubts that Taoiseach Leo Varadkar will proceed with his planned Cabinet reshuffle later this summer.
Mr Varadkar has said he intends to carry out a reshuffle in June or July this year, to coincide with the second anniversary of his election as Fine Gael leader.
But some Cabinet colleagues and backbenchers have since questioned the wisdom of such an exercise.
They have cited the proximity to the next election, which now looks likely to happen in 2020, the fact two mini reshuffles occurred in 2018 and the potential for creating internal tensions within the Fine Gael parliamentary party so close to an election.
“I can’t really see it happening,” said one Minister, speaking on the condition of anonymity. “He has already made two promotions with Josepha Madigan [Minister for Culture, Heritage and the Gaeltacht] and Joe McHugh [Minister for Education and Skills] following the resignations of Frances Fitzgerald and Denis Naughten. There’s not a huge amount of scope left especially as it could be less than a year until the next election.”
Ms Fitzgerald resigned in November 2017 as tánaiste and minister for justice. She was in the eye of the Garda whistleblower controversy and resigned to save the Fine Gael-led minority government and its confidence and supply arrangement with Fianna Fáil.
The Disclosures Tribunal in October last year found she had done nothing wrong and that she had “selflessly” resigned in the national interest.
Mr Naughten resigned last October amid controversy over contacts he had with American businessman David McCourt, of the Granahan McCourt Capital consortium, which was the sole remaining bidder for the plan to provide broadband to some 500,000 homes and businesses without high speed broadband access.
Meanwhile, another TD, a backbencher, said if Mr Varadkar sacked Ministers it would leave him with some disunity in the ranks in the lead-up to the next general election.
However, other sources close to the Cabinet said they saw scope for some changes, notably for strong performers like Regina Doherty [Minister for Employment Affairs and Social Protection] and Ms Madigan.
In relation to the two Ministers in the most difficult portfolios - Simon Harris in Health and Eoghan Murphy in Housing - the source said they could see one of the two, probably Mr Harris, being moved; but not both.
Of the junior ministers, the obvious candidate for promotion would be Helen McEntee who has been a credible voice for Government on Brexit in her role as Minister of State for European Affairs.
However, her promotion might create a certain geographical quandary in the sense that two senior ministers - Ms Doherty is her constituency colleague - would be representing the same three-seat constituency, Meath East.
In an interview with the media over Christmas, Mr Varadkar suggested a reshuffle would take place after the local and European elections.
“It was done on the last occasion by Enda Kenny as taoiseach [in 2014]. I’d be minded to do the same. There’ll be a chance to reshuffle the team then, perhaps in June or July. That would give them a chance over the summer to read into new briefs if they get them.”
Mr Varadkar left most of Mr Kenny’s ministers in place after becoming Taoiseach in 2017 but promised younger TDs expecting promotion he would make extensive changes in the next reshuffle.
