The Government is likely to mandate a tightening of restrictions on quarantine and travel when it meets on Tuesday, following Monday's Cabinet subcommittee meeting. But does that mean Ireland is heading for Asian-type restrictions? And why is the Government only moving to take action now?

Asian-type restrictions are unlikely to be introduced here, according to people involved in the process, but there is an expectation that quarantine rules will be tightened to require people arriving in the State without a negative Covid-19 test to quarantine for a period in a hotel nominated by the authorities. A similar move is reportedly being considered by the British government.

What are the objections?

Hospital Report

There are reservations in Government about the proposal which has been previously mooted and rejected on the grounds of proportionality and enforceability. Answering questions in the Dáil last week, Tánaiste Leo Varadkar said that quarantining people with a negative Covid test for 14 days would be "disproportionate".

Mr Varadkar also said that the numbers coming into the country are “very low”. This has been the Government’s position since last spring, when the National Public Health Emergency Team first mooted the prospect of a mandatory, enforced quarantine. Traffic into the country has plummeted since the start of the pandemic. Last week, Mr Varadkar said that there were 33,000 people travelling in and out of the country every week; but Government sources on Monday said that the latest figures suggested that the current figures were between 1,000-2,000 a day on weekdays, and 3,000-4,000 at weekends.

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Last week, Mr Varadkar said that many of these were people engaged in essential travel, “for example”, he said, “people coming back for a funeral or maybe seeing a dying relative, a supply chain worker or a crucial worker who has come to fix a machine in a hospital, for example. This is essential travel and we need to make sure we do not cut off essential travel entirely because sometimes it is necessary.”

To many people, however, those numbers will sound pretty high, especially when they hear that 3,000 people from Brazil and South Africa – both places where new mutations of the virus are circulating – flew into the country over the Christmas period.

Wouldn’t introducing a quarantine requirement cause the numbers coming here to fall?

That’s what Government expects. But there has also been a concern that it would be economically damaging for the country for a number of reasons – hence the reluctance to pursue this course so far. Ireland has one of the most open economies in the world and is highly reliant on its multinational sector, which is a huge engine of the economy and provider of tax revenues. Ministers and senior officials have privately expressed fears about reducing connectivity on a hoped-for post-Covid recovery. But these objections are likely to be overcome by the pressing political need to act in response to the current wave of the virus. “They didn’t do it before now because they didn’t see the need for it,” explains one insider. “They do now.”

Does the Government have the legal powers to enforce quarantine?

Sources say that the Attorney General is examining this question but there is an expectation that powers under public health legislation would enable the authorities to take the actions currently being discussed. However, sources play down the likely involvement of the gardaí in the transfer and supervision of passengers to hotels.

What about Northern Ireland?

This is where it gets complicated. The Government has made clear that closing the Border with Northern Ireland is a non-starter, and with 300-odd Border crossings, and constant cross-Border traffic, it would present enormous practical and logistical difficulties – never mind the political fallout.

Sinn Féin and others have called for an all-Ireland approach, but the DUP has made clear that closing the island – say, quarantining people arriving on internal UK flights from London, Liverpool, etc – is not something it will agree to. This effectively means that whatever is done at the Republic’s ports and airports, there will be a very large back door left open. But the Border issue doesn’t mean you can’t tighten the rules on flights from Brazil.

There have been some suggestions of a “two-island” strategy, in which the Republic and the UK would adopt common rules on travel, quarantine, etc. But the approach of the two governments has been quite different since the start of the pandemic, and any discussions on the possibility appear to have been cursory at best. Over the weekend, Taoiseach Micheál Martin said the talks were “very exploratory and very embryonic”. Government sources say that it’s more likely that EU countries will begin to unilaterally tighten restrictions on incoming travel.

When will we know more?

The Cabinet subcommittee on Covid-19 is meeting on Monday afternoon and will hear briefings from chief medical officer Tony Holohan and the HSE chief Paul Reid. Then Ministers and senior officials will discuss the best options to put before a full meeting of the Cabinet on Tuesday morning.