Think-ins but no ease-ins to new Dáil term

There’s no easing of toes back into the water for national politicians this week, rather an ungainly plunge into deep waters.

All three big parties are holding their parliamentary party planning meetings today and tomorrow - or ‘think-ins’ to use the more popular and inaccurate description.

As the Dáil returns this week both the Budget and Seanad campaigns are expected to go into overdrive. And as usual we will get the divisions - some real, some artifice - both within the Coalition and within the Oireachtas. There will be the partly earnest, partly phoney war, within Government on what should and should not be in the Budget.

The figure of €3.1 billion (which is almost meaningless to people in their real lives) will be bandied about for the next three weeks as if Fine Gael and Labour are in mortal combat and their lives depends on either a) keeping it high (FG) or b) getting it low (LP).

The reality is that the figure that will be announced on Budget Day will be in the vicinity of €2.7 billion - I have not spoken to a Minister yet who believes it will be €3.1 billion. But the coalition partners each need to keep that creative tension alive. Each needs to carve out their own distinct identity, show their influence. It is an exercise in marking territory on all available political lamp-posts.

The chorus line for all this, of course, is provided by the high-kicking trio of Ruairi Quinn, James Reilly and Joan Burton, each singing verses of loss and potential loss. Don't be surprised that they are completely out of step and out of synch with each other. That's how they put on their shows around here.

The other topic du jour is the Seanad referendum campaign. And none of the three major parties have anything to crow about. The more time goes on the more it appears that the decision by Fine Gael, and subsequently that of Labour, to scrap the Seanad was an arbitrary one taken for reasons of populism and political convenience.

As the campaign has progressed what has been apparent is the lack of thought that has gone into it. The Government campaign has cited other countries where bicameral systems were abandoned but other than name-checking those countries (most which changed well over a generation ago) has provided no context or “meat” as to the rationale behind such moves. If you want to find out why they abandoned them you have to go off and do the donkey work yourself.

The Fine Gael campaign, as outlined in its literature, is archly cynical. It’s focusing on money and fewer politicians. Why? Not because the party believes passionately in that. No, it’s because that’s what the focus groups have told them is the lowest common denominator and will have most purchase with most people.

As for Labour, it’s attitude seems to be... we’re all for this kind of thing but if any of our members are really against this kind of thing, well, we’re all for them to be that too. In other words, there’s a bit of Tadhg an Dá Thaobh to be seen there.

Fianna Fáil have also looked into their hearts and have seen a chance to play the populist card. The party's problem is that it went with the flow in the general election in 2011 when its state of being was halfway between sclerotic and riga mortis. But, now it's changed its mind. Even if its reasons are genuine (i.e. we were wrong and shallow in the first place) it's still a flip-flop and U-turn and there's the sneaking suspicion it has also done so for support reasons.

There are other things that should be discussed as a matter of urgency - not least climate change which seems to have disappeared from the political agenda.

But with two dates looming (October 4th for the Seanad referendum and October 15th for the Budget) it would be the height of folly to expect any political party to discuss anything else in public.

The private parts of these meetings will be more strategic - with each party looking to the local and European elections next year. Strangely, all might lose. Fianna Fáil did very badly in 2009 but not half as badly as it did in 2011. So for the party to achieve the 25 to 26 per cent it got in 2009 would be a success but there’s no guarantee it can do that.

Labour had a great election four years ago and its election will be about managing expectations and losses. And to a certain extent, the same goes for Fine Gael, but not to the same degree.

The phenomenon in Britain where all three major parties seem to be faring poorly (Labour is ahead in the polls but Ed Milliband is tanking) is a little analogous to the situation here. Fine Gael has slipped a bit but has levelled off. Fianna Fáil has recovered a bit but has it plateaud? Labour might regain some lost territory but only some. Maybe it's a mid-term thing but none of them seem to be particularly loved at the moment... merely tolerated.