Theresa May and Enda Kenny: Two-speed leadership change

Theresa May is poised to become the British prime minister in the blink of the eye. Compare that Road Runner speed with the rest. The British could have a general election before its Labour Party's tortuous process to select a leader has concluded.

Meanwhile, here in Ireland, I have seen live insects become fossilised in rocks quicker than Fine Gael making its mind up over whether or not it wants to replace its leader.

As The Irish Times reports in our main story today, the new British PM is determined there will be no going back on the referendum result.

“Brexit means Brexit. And we are going to make a success of it,” were May’s most quotable quotes.

It became a coronation in the end. Her rival Andrea Leadsom seemed just about the most tolerable representative from the party's right.

Tolerable is relative. On Saturday, in an interview in the Times of London, she made the appalling remark that she was somehow better at understanding the problems of Britain because she was a mother - unlike the childless May.

Leadsom first of all tried to use the classic ‘attack the messenger’ strategy. When the Times released a recording of the interview, she was eventually forced to retreat and apologise. She never really had the numbers to take on the May locomotive, but the controversy put paid to whatever hope she had.

One important matter was referred to by May yesterday. She said it was “inconceivable” the status of the Border between Britain and Ireland will not change once the British leave the EU.

It was gas over the weekend listening to Tory politicians crowing about how they were going to spend all the lolly they get back from the EU. That is like a ‘cash-back’ scheme from a lender. You get a bit of cash back, but you end up paying far more because the interest rate is higher. The loss of access to EU markets will quickly swallow up that bonanza.

The most cringe-inducing moment of the day happened on the Labour side. Angela Eagle held a press conference yesterday to launch her leadership.

Unfortunately for her it clashed with Theresa May announcing her candidacy. Eagle was not aware of it. She called questions from the BBC. Silence. Then Robert Peston of ITN. Silence. Then Michael Crick of the BBC. Silence. You can watch the car crash here.

Meanwhile, back at the ranch . . .

As we reported yesterday, Fine Gael TD for Kerry Brendan Griffin was the first to stick his neck out and call for Enda Kenny to go.

Carlow-Kilkenny deputy Pat Deering is another who has made his views public. When no one else came out yesterday the threat against Kenny's leadership receded as pathetically as Galway's second half against Kilkenny nine days ago.

What I found interesting about Kenny’s first public comments yesterday on his leadership (made in Mayo) were the unusually strong and robust tenor of them.

He said he was not going anywhere - but in the manner that Liam Neeson tends to use when he is leaving voice mails.

To me, the fortitude sounded not so much like a politician getting a stay of execution but looking for retention planning permission for a rather large extension.

My colleagues on the political team spent a lot of yesterday contacting Fine Gael TDs to get their on-the-record comments on Kenny's leadership. Naturally, most of them are backing him . . . for now. Here is the full report.

And here isthe news report.

Come the autumn, the dynamics of that will have changed. Many of the party TDs are saying he will have to go soon after the Budget.

On the face of it, that looks like a done deal. Kenny will not have the same protection he had in 2010 when Phil Hogan orchestrated his defence to Richard Bruton's challenge.

Last week was a horrible week for Kenny: He seemed tired, resigned, tetchy, half-defeated. But that week will recede. None of his potential successors (and we take it there are three) have built up huge momentum, and Kenny’s remaining support within the wider parliamentary party should not be discounted.

My own instinct is that Kenny is nearing the end, but I do not ignore the possibility of a determined rearguard action by those closest to him that might see them attempt to extend his leadership well into 2017.

It is not in Fianna Fáil’s interest to collapse the Government on a whim because they will be called out by the electorate for that. A bigger danger lies from the innate flakiness of the Independents within. If they stay, Kenny’s team could map out a survival strategy that would prolong his time.

Those close to Kenny have already been stressing that cometh the crisis (Brexit) cometh the man. His trip to Berlin today to meet Angela Merkel is a QED of that, they say: His steady hand is needed on the tiller through the choppy seas ahead.

We media (and politicians) get very excitable and look at everything through the prism of the here and now. I would not write off Enda Kenny just yet.