TDs assessing what new general election could mean

No matter what they say most politicians dread elections – the expense, the abuse, the uncertainty. While the public may regard a general election campaign as either entertainment or an inconvenience, for the protagonists it is three or four weeks of long, hard days.

Very few politicians, just arrived in the Dáil in recent days, want to think about the possibility of another election any time soon.

Yet with the prospects for the formation of a stable government uncertain, parties and politicians are starting to assess what a second election would mean for them, and how ready they are to fight it.

“Everyone’s kept the posters anyway,” says one Fine Gael TD. “But nobody wants an election. I’d be afraid that you’d go to the doors and they’d say ‘what are you doing here’?”

Fine Gael is still reeling from the election, the TD says. “We’re still at sixes and sevens on coalition, on policy, on the leadership.”

Vote management would also be more difficult. “My team wouldn’t help my running mate again.”

There is a sense among people in all parties that Fianna Fáil has the most to gain from a second election. The party membership is buoyed by the success of the recent campaign, and would raise money easily.

Asked if the party would be ready to fight another election, one Dublin grassroots member answered immediately: “Absolutely. Completely. We’d love it.”

“Fianna Fáil is much less afraid of a second election,” says one Government figure ruefully. “They have a message, they have a strong leader, and they have momentum. Fine Gael has none of those things.”

The perception that Fianna Fáil would be “blamed” for another election does not seem to bother party sources. Even their rivals discount it.

“RTÉ and the political bubble don’t want another election. But most people wouldn’t care. They don’t pay much attention anyway. What does an election mean? There’s more politics on RTÉ One. But there’s a lot of other channels,” says one Government figure.

Labour has kept a contingency fund in case of another election, and there is a feeling in the party that another election might allow it to recover some of the losses, albeit modestly.

Voters’ anger

Party chiefs hope that voters’ anger at Labour might have been expended by the thrashing meted out at the polls a fortnight ago. The party has already begun to think how it might approach a second campaign. A key element of that, says one strategist, would be “untethering” the party from Fine Gael.

Sinn Féin sources said the party has started to prepare for a potential second election.

The party spent almost €500,000 on the election held two weeks ago, according to records filed with the Standards in Public Office Commission.

“Necessity will be our master. If there is an election we will have to find the funds. We would be up for an election, that is what we are preparing for.”

Lacking the organisation of the political parties, a second election would be particularly difficult for small parties and Independents.

The Social Democrats and the People before Profit-Anti-Austerity Alliance said they relied heavily on donations from supporters to fund their election campaigns.

Anti-Austerity Alliance TD Paul Murphy said a second election would be “quite a lot of pressure”.

“We will have to do what we did the last time and raise money from ordinary people and ask for small donations, hold fundraising events.

“It is far from ideal but we are prepared to fight a second election. What we would probably do is focus more on constituencies where we narrowly lost out or where we have a chance of securing a second seat.”

Own pockets

For Independents, the price of a second election is a bit more costly. All the funds come from their own pockets.

Independent Alliance TD John Halligan said he spent between €10,000-12,000 on the election. raised through small donations and coffee mornings.

“If there was another one I would have to get a loan from the credit union. I couldn’t go back to the same people again.”

The question of government would likely hang over any second election to a great degree. It would be untenable for the two big parties to go through another campaign saying that they would not do business with each another. If there is another election the question may not be whether there is going to be a grand coalition; it will be over who is going to lead it.