Taoiseach not likely to be eclipsed just yet

Once Enda Kenny declared he would not go into a third election as Fine Gael leader, he more or less sealed his fate.

In a rearguard action to ensure his second term was not too short, he later qualified it by saying he would serve a full second term as taoiseach.

Given the murky outcome of the general election, and the finely balanced authority Fine Gael has to rule, predicting how long this Government will last is an impossible task.

As Jim Daly – one of the Fine Gael TDs pressing for the leadership process to begin – pointed out this week, there is a contradiction in Kenny's two declarations on his leadership.

He can’t serve the full second term because the party will have to have the succession race settled well before the next election takes place. And, given the instability of the current set-up, it’s impossible to second guess when that election will be.

‘The little things’

There is no doubt the events of the past 10 days have put huge pressure on Kenny’s leadership and renewed the debate within Fine Gael as to his departure date.

In 1994, when his own time as taoiseach had been cut short by "events", Albert Reynolds ruefully noted it was the "little things that trip you up".

None of the cock-ups of the past 10 days could be construed as sackable offences in themselves. But, weakened as he is by his party’s poor general election, Kenny’s demeanour this week seemed resigned, exhausted, unsure. It was in marked contrast to the steeliness with which he stood down his detractors in 2010. For the first time, his political mortality was beginning to look inevitable.

Are we about to see another heave? The short answer is no. There is a group of 10 Fine Gael TDs who are openly disaffected – most vented their feelings at the parliamentary party meeting last week.

No confidence

One has drafted a form of no-confidence motion, which essentially proposes a succession process. That has yet to be tabled although there is a (faint) possibility it could be put before the party’s TDs and Senators on Wednesday.

In the short term, Kenny can be assured of the support of a sizeable number of the party’s 50 deputies, although that number would diminish were he to insist on extending his writ beyond 2017.

Most party members – including potential successors Leo Varadkar, Simon Coveney and Frances Fitzgerald – believe the time is not right now but that the debate should take place in the near future. Many have argued that the danger of Brexit consequences trumps any internal party considerations.

The recalcitrant TDs have been described as a group, but they are not that coherent. They are aware of each other’s views and might have chatted informally about it. But it has gone no further.

Those close to Kenny are still wary and have floated the idea of a motion of confidence being tabled on Wednesday, to draw a line under the issue. That might be an over-reaction, especially if Kenny steps down within nine months to a year. The thing is nobody is sure if that is his intention.