Strong ardfheis for Micheál Martin

So is it now all smelling of roses for Fianna Fáil or can we detect a slight whiff of cordite still lingering in the air? Has the mercury risen so much on the moodometer in the course of one weekend that the party has parlayed itself back into contention?

There is little doubt Fianna Fáil had a good ardfheis at City West in Dublin on Saturday, in so far as one can judge these pro-forma and somewhat artificial events. The party finally unveiled an election slogan – "An Ireland for All" – and had a good stab at outlining what it is, and what it stand for these days. Micheál Martin delivered his best stump speech since become leader five years ago, more memorable for its tone than its content.

And that prevailing tone? It could best be described as defiance, summed up by Martin’s strongest passage in his speech, an assertion that the election would be more than a one-horse race.

“[Fine Gael] want a coronation and not an election. Well this is a republic and we don’t do coronations. The Irish people will decide.”

You could set your watch by these events, especially the dress rehearsals for elections. The candidates are paraded, the Opposition berated, the rhetoric pumped up to the maximum decibel levels.

As it happened, Fianna Fáil erstwhile coalition partner, the Green Party, also held its conference this weekend. There was a similar buoyancy of mood compared to the abject wretchedness of 2011. The UK political scientist Tim Bale, a guest at the Fianna Fáil event, put it best, saying that the patient was now out of intensive care and breathing without assistance. But dispel any thoughts, he warned, of sprinting to an unexpected victory.

So how far have these two parties progressed their respective paths to recovery? After being cast out to the wilderness, both in their different ways have shown they will survive. The question is can the Greens recover its former support and can Fianna Fáil recover its one-time hegemony?

Journeys

The answer to both is only partially. Their respective journeys are nowhere near completion. It will take another election at least before that process is complete. For the Greens, the overwhelming youtfulness of the attendance signalled it has already attracted a new generation, unperturbed by the last government.

Martin needed a strong performance. The party has flatlined in polls over the past 18 months, has had difficulty spelling out what it stands for, and faces endless questions about possible coalition arrangements. In addition, no amount of Grecian 2000 can disguises the face the the age profile of the party is decidedly grey.

There were no killer lines in his speech, but it was well crafted, with short passages allowing for staccato delivery and populist criticism of Enda Kenny, viz: "He is fond of telling stories about men with pints and the army at ATMs. The biggest fairy tale is the tale of recovery."

The party’s message is starting to have a coherence that was lacking until now. The ardfheis helped put some flesh on the bones and showed the beginning of what might be a plausible alternative.

The core of it is that Fine Gael is a party that represents only one section of society, the wealthiest, which will benefit to the detriment of everybody else. Fianna Fáil's assertion is that it can deliver the same kind of economic results but share the spoils more equitably. A trick of the loop? Possibly; the proof will be in the pudding.

Martin also trailed an eye-catching proposal committing the party to an independent costing analysis of every policy it puts forward in its manifesto. “There will be no action politics, no uncommitted promises, no proposals which could damage the economy,” was the vow. Such exercises can often be subjective but, politically, at least it laid down a challenge to rivals.

Bale was correct in saying next month’s election is not the crucial one for Fianna Fáil but the one that follows it. Electorally, Martin has no choice but to say the party could be the biggest after the general election. In reality that is not going to happen. A win, predicted Bale, would be narrowing the gap between it and Fine Gael from the 19 percentage points of 2011 to below 10. Another win would also be staying well ahead of Sinn Féin after the hustings are complete.

Overtures

Realistically, like the Greens, the party needs another period in Opposition. It needs to resist any overtures of a coalition. If it went in with Fine Gael it would suffer the same debilitating thrashing the Social Democrats got in

Germany

the first time they went in with Angela Merkel’s

Christian Democrats

. It would also allow Sinn Féin eclipse it as the second largest party. Similarly, a coalition with Sinn Féin – at this relatively early stage of its assimilation into more conventional southern politics – would be playing with fire.

Such coalition questions are legitimate but the media tends to be obsessed by them to the exclusion of everything else. Martin will have to fend them off on a daily basis. Opinion polls also serve as a catnip for the media but they too can be a distorting mirror. Sinn Féin consistently polls ahead of Fianna Fáil but it is ludicrous to predict it will win anywhere near the same number of seats. Fianna Fáil has latched on to the local elections too much.

So how well can it do? It will be a two-tier process. It will win seats in most of the non-Dublin constituencies and will win two in more than a handful. In the capital, though, it will be slim pickings. It’s hard to see it winning more than three or four. Recovery in Dublin might take another decade.