Still too early for former big two to discuss a possible coalition

The possibility of a coalition or some governing arrangement between Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael has been obvious from opinion polls for some time now, but the two parties have been loath to discuss it.

Micheál Martin ruled it out, Simon Coveney said it was a possibility, but changed his tune after falling foul of his party, and Leo Varadkar also said it could work.

Almost everyone in Fine Gael is now on message publicly: Fine Gael and Labour must be re-elected and no other options are being entertained. Privately, it is a different matter for some.

“On this issue you sing one song, and if you can’t sing that song you don’t sing at all,” said one Fine Gaeler.

“We need discipline but a lot of us want it [sharing power with Fianna Fáil].”

Recent polls have shown a sharp drop in support for the coalition parties and a rise in support for Independents. Thus it might be difficult to form any government following the election which is not an FF-FG alliance.

Many in Fine Gael would like to have Fianna Fáil as junior partner in government, thus establishing themselves as the natural party of power.

Fianna Fáil would have to accept a reduced status in a fully fledged coalition, leaving the main duty of opposition to Sinn Féin and supplying it with a springboard to eventually become the lead party in a government.

Fianna Fáil finance spokesman Michael McGrath’s comments this week mark him out as the most senior party figure to seriously raise the prospect of a Fine Gael-Fianna Fáil coalition.

He is supported by Carlow-Kilkenny TD John McGuinness. Both maintain the coalition option must be kept open if the party is to remain relevant in an election campaign.

There is an undeniable truth to this argument. If Fianna Fáil rules out going into power with either Sinn Féin or Fine Gael, as Martin has done, then what is the point of voting for it?

However, McGrath and McGuinness are in the minority, though another senior TD said: “A government will have to be formed. People will not thank us if we reappear on their doors six weeks after a first election.”

Membership

New Fianna Fáil rules say the party membership must ratify a coalition arrangement. This year’s ardfheis saw delegates reject the possibility of an alliance with Fine Gael.

Some TDs are concerned about the future of the party if it is enters coalition with Fine Gael, but that is unlikely to garner sympathy from voters.

In a scenario where Fine Gael could not form a coalition with a working majority, some Fianna Fáil TDs believe supporting a minority government on a case-by-case basis is preferable, with another election in 18 months.

In an interview on RTÉ yesterday, McGrath struck a note more likely to find favour with the electorate: it is not about the future of Fianna Fáil, but the country, and providing stable government.