For Fianna Fáil, Tuesday's budget will almost be like a moment of collision with Fine Gael: the closest it will come to its main opponent before it rebounds, at least temporarily, like a bumper car bouncing away after a head-on smash.
Micheál Martin has told his TDs it will be the greatest test of the confidence and supply deal struck between the two parties earlier this year. Senior figures in the party believe it will be the first proper impression the public will have of this novel arrangement.
It will also mark something of a pivot point for Fianna Fáil as it seeks to differentiate itself to a greater extent from Fine Gael and take positions away from the confines of the confidence and supply deal.
Across the top of the party, the direction of travel is clear: “back to the future”, as one source put it. Back to the left, back to the values of Fianna Fáil in the 1920s and 1930s.
Somewhat conveniently, the Progressive Democrats are blamed for the rightward shift in the mid noughties.
“Fianna Fáil is positioning itself where it was historically,” says one frontbencher. “We were pulled too far to the right by the PDs and what is happening now is a realignment and we’re coming back to where we are.”
Stages
The first stage in the deal that led to the Fine Gael-Independent Coalition was to allow the Government to bed down in its opening months; the second to pass the budget. The third will be to use the coming months to distinguish Fianna Fáil through proposals and legislation.
“There will be issues where we will be a strong Opposition, issues like flood defence, motor insurance, mortgage interest,” said one TD.
While Martin is not said to keep an inner cabal, a number of influential figures will help him steer the party in the direction he wants to go. Some of those were involved in budget talks with Fine Gael.
Spending a priority
Michael McGrath and
Dara Calleary
, the finance and public expenditure spokesmen respectively, have been over and back to
Michael Noonan
and
Paschal Donohoe
to ensure the budget has a Fianna Fáil stamp.
McGrath is understood to have emphasised the Fianna Fáil priority for spending and ensured the 2:1 ratio between spending and tax cuts laid down in the deal was adhered to. The Cork South-Central TD has a good relationship with Noonan, who was said to be relatively freewheeling in his budget dealings, and the spending argument was said to have been the strongest marker laid down.
The relationship between McGrath, who at one stage favoured coalition with Fine Gael, and Martin has improved. It was previously uneasy at times because of their constituency rivalry in Cork-South Central.
“They know there is space for both of them (in the constituency),” said one TD. “They aren’t fighting over streetlights and bus lanes any more. They are just getting on with it.”
Calleary was also somewhat distant during the last Dáil but his appointment as public expenditure spokesman has brought him closer to Martin.
Calleary and McGrath were accompanied at times during budget talks by Deirdre Gillane, Martin's chef de cabinet and the most influential adviser in the party, or policy adviser Kevin Dillon.
As well as Calleary, McGrath and Gillane, others close to Martin include justice spokesman Jim O'Callaghan – whose swift ascent into favour has caused jealously among others – and the quietly influential chief whip Michael Moynihan.
The judgment of Barry Cowen, who is not as pugnacious as his public persona suggests, is also valued. Communications director Pat McParland works alongside the leader and Gillane and general secretary Sean Dorgan is in daily contact.
Ties at the top
There was unease between 2011 and 2016, when Martin led a rump parliamentary party. However, the process of negotiations with Fine Gael – with McGrath, O’Callaghan, Cowen and TD Charlie McConalogue representing Fianna Fáil – built relationships at the top of the party.
"Confidence and supply did draw a lot of people together," said one source. Billy Kelleher and Timmy Dooley, the chief lieutenants during the last Dáil, are still close to the leadership. However, Kelleher annoyed many when he said before the election that Fianna Fáil would win 40 seats on a "very good day", an acknowledgement it would not be in government.
“That didn’t go down well with anybody,” said one party source. Kelleher was also keen to go into coalition with Fine Gael. Dooley, meanwhile, was criticised by some for running what was seen as a sub-par Seanad election campaign.
Gillane is the main conduit to Fine Gael and consults on at least a weekly basis with her opposite number in Enda Kenny's office, Mark Kennelly. Martin and Kenny speak less frequently but there is ongoing consultation between Cabinet Ministers and Fianna Fáil frontbenchers.
Despite such consultations and a guarantee from Fine Gael that the budget will contain no surprises, senior figures say the coming week will not be an easy one.
Slating
“We are going to get a slating and we know it,” said one of those who will have to steer the party through budget week before emerging the other side and striking more distinctive positions.
The main thrust of these positions will relate to spending on public services, with one senior figure saying the party will advocate that as much as three quarters of all resources should be used for spending, with the remainder on tax cuts.
Its deal with Fine Gael commits Fianna Fáil to a 2:1 split in favour of spending but the party believes there is nothing to stop it highlighting what it would do if it were in power.
Martin is back out canvassing, undertaking constituency visits as he did during the last Dáil, but numerous sources insist Fianna Fáil will not bring the Government down soon. They maintain the party will see out its three-year arrangement with Fine Gael and that the greatest danger to the Coalition’s stability comes from its Independent members.
“We came from intensive care,” said one senior Fianna Fáiler this week. “We are only in phase two, or phase 1b, really. We are still trying to recover.”
Once the budget is out of the way, the next phase of that recovery will begin.
