Sinn Féin gains four points to match Fine Gael while backing for Fianna Fáil slides

Conducted on Monday and Tuesday of this week, the latest Irish Times/Ipsos MRBI poll reveals a jump of four points in support for Sinn Féin. Fine Gael are unchanged which means there is nothing separating Sinn Féin and Fine Gael, with both parties attracting 24 per cent support.

Labour have edged higher (up two points to 9 per cent ) while Fianna Fáil have dropped five points to 20 per cent , the party's lowest rating since 2012.

Independents and Others are on 23 per cent, one point lower but still a very strong performance when looked at historically.

Government performance, which is rated as satisfactory by 23 per cent of the electorate, is up one point since April when Government satisfaction was last measured.

In previous years, when every budget was an austerity one, no change in a pre-budget poll would likely have been welcomed by a Government party. But Fine Gael surely expected some payback for getting the economy moving again.

The end of austerity is nigh, apparently, and the Government will have more room to manoeuvre in next week’s budget than anyone could have predicted. The economy is on the up, house prices are recovering and relief in the form of tax cuts is on the horizon.

Derailed message Against this backdrop, no increase in support for Fine Gael seems incongruent, unless whispers of tax cuts and the trumpeting of economic growth failed to cut through the din of opposition politicians and the media calling for the Taoiseach to explain exactly how John McNulty was appointed to the board of the Irish Museum of Modern Art

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The McNulty controversy also appears to have acted as a drag on Enda Kenny’s personal satisfaction rating, down four points to 26 per cent – its lowest level since 2010.

Today’s poll is the first since Labour changed leader and welcomed new faces to Cabinet. Out went Eamon Gilmore, Pat Rabbitte and Ruairí Quinn, in came Alan Kelly, Alex White and Jan O’Sullivan.

Labour’s July reshuffle was prompted by a run of disappointing poll numbers and a dismal performance in the European and local elections in June. A gain of two points shows labour moving in the right direction. Interestingly, Labour’s support among men is unchanged (on 7 per cent) while support among women is up (from 7 per cent to 11 per cent).

Satisfaction with Joan Burton’s performance, at 37 per cent , makes her the most popular party leader and is well above the 20 per cent rating achieved by Eamon Gilmore just before resigning his leadership of the party. In effect, Burton has carried across to her new role the relatively high level of satisfaction she enjoyed as minister for social protection. She is also the most popular party leader

The budget next week should be a good news story for Fine Gael and Labour, but the celebrations may be muted. With prudence being urged by the Fiscal Advisory Council and the EU, the Coalition parties do not want to be accused of being reckless. And what may be a neutral budget from a Department of Finance perspective will feel anything but neutral for voters who begin paying for their water in January and who, more generally, have yet to see economic growth translate into a rise in living standards.

A drop of five points (down to 20 per cent) for Fianna Fáil is significant, statistically and strategically. It raises questions about how the party will position itself with voters in a post-austerity world when some of the more obvious territories have been colonised by Fine Gael and Sinn Féin.

A positive for Fianna Fáil is their level of support among the under 25s (on 22 per cent), second only to Sinn Féin.

Satisfaction with Micheál Martin’s performance as party leader has dipped, to 26 per cent , a fall of five points.

Adams satisfaction rating Sinn Féin have surfed a wave of anti-austerity feeling since 2009 and

there is no sign yet of their message losing resonance. The party is on 24 per cent in this latest poll, equalling the Sinn Féin’s all-time high in May 2012 just before the vote on the European Fiscal Treaty.

Satisfaction with Sinn Féin president Gerry Adams is at 35 per cent, up two points.

Some of the poll data for Sinn Féin is especially noteworthy. It is the number one party in Dublin and Leinster, dominates among younger and working-class voters and is the most popular party with men (albeit marginally).

Independents and Others, including the Greens, (on 23 per cent ) register another strong poll performance. Their appeal, which has been climbing steadily since 2008, is undimmed by the partial unwinding of our financial difficulties.With the economy improving, what next for the parties and politicians of the left, who have benefited in electoral terms from our economic woes?

Judging from these poll findings, their message is as relevant today as it has ever been for those on welfare, pensions, low incomes or struggling to access Government services. And, realistically, these groups will not see their situations change dramatically before the next election no matter how well the economy performs in the interim.

Note on methodology

For this latest poll, 1,200 interviews were conducted among a nationally representative sample of the population aged 18 years and upwards. Historically, Irish Times/Ipsos MRBI polls have been based on a sample of 1,000 interviews.

Since 2012, the percentage of voters undecided or claiming they would not vote has increased to one in four and on occasion has risen to one in three.

Historically, about one in five voters fell into the undecided/unlikely to vote category. The higher the number of undecided/unlikely to vote respondents, the lower the effective sample size for measuring party support, a critical question in all our political polls.

So to return our effective sample size to a more robust level, our poll sample has been increased by 200 to 1,200 interviews.

Beyond its methodological implications, the apparent increase in undecided/unlikely voters is concerning for politicians and the political process. It is too early to say definitively if we are witnessing a permanent increase in disillusionment or disenfranchisement or if it is a temporary phenomenon as a result of austerity fatigue. Only after another election cycle will we know for sure.

Future Irish Times/Ipsos MRBI political polls will be based on a sample of 1,200 unless a sustained drop in undecided/unlikely voters is observed.