Serious talks on a programme for government to begin

Fears about the spread of the coronavirus and its implications for national life are accelerating in Government by the day. This will change the political context in the short-term and - if the outbreak is as bad as the worst-case scenarios project - it will change society and politics profoundly over the longer term.

The immediate sign that the political context is changing is in the acceleration of the government formation process. At the weekend, senior figures in Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael played down the prospect of any meaningful engagement on coalition formation between the two parties. This suggested that with Taoiseach Leo Varadkar bound for the US, and the Dáil being adjourned until March 19th, it would be after St Patrick’s Day before any serious business could be done. But now things are happening much quicker.

The announcement by the two parties on Tuesday that they would begin “in depth detailed talks” is the biggest breakthrough in the process since the election and came after meetings between Varadkar and Fianna Fáil leader Micheál Martin in recent days.

TDs in both parties had begun to express impatience, believing that the public will not tolerate the sort of shilly-shallying that has marked engagements before now. Deputies in all parties believe voters will quickly run out of patience with politicians if serious moves towards forming a government are not made soon.

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There are very few people seriously entertaining the idea of a national government being assembled to deal with the crisis. This was partly because of an awareness that if difficult decisions have to be taken quickly, then a government containing all shades of opinion would be the worst vehicle imaginable for doing so. Even Sinn Féin leader Mary Lou McDonald pooh-poohed the idea.

Extraordinarily difficult

None of this means that a Fianna Fáil-Fine Gael-Greens government will be any easier to assemble. The policy and politics will still be extraordinarily difficult.

But there is no question that the rising fear - amongst the public and within the political apparatus - has changed the external context significantly, and is pushing the two big parties together in a way it wasn’t previously.

There is also, however, a realisation that the benign economic weather for any incoming administration has changed drastically. The shock to the world economy currently being delivered by the coronavirus outbreak is as yet unquantifiable but will certainly impact Ireland’s public finances.

Therefore the resources available to the next government for large-scale investment in, for example, housing - an area where major action is viewed as being essential in Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil - is unclear.

Efforts to combat the virus are also likely to lead to a significant expansion in health spending, as well as footing the bill for the extension of sick leave, even as businesses face a cash crunch.

The bottom line is that the next government will be doing a lot of up-front spending because of the crisis. This will restrict their options elsewhere for the sort of spending commitments that pad out a programme for government and make agreeing a policy platform easier.

But the effects of the virus on Irish politics may well go far beyond an acceleration of government formation and big costs for the public purse. If the crisis deteriorates to the extent that the healthcare system is completely overwhelmed and the State cannot cope, that is likely to shatter public confidence in politics and parties that would inevitably be seen by people to have failed.

Should there be huge numbers of deaths from the virus, the shock of that would scar and change Irish society profoundly. It would change our politics in ways it is hard now to imagine.