The scale of Theresa May's defeat in the House of Commons last night surprised Dublin, and was a deeply unwelcome development for the Government, which said it raised the prospect of a disorderly Brexit in less than 10 weeks. The Government's own no-deal plans, discussed again by the Cabinet yesterday, are coming under increasing scrutiny. That is certain to intensify now.
The result heightens the uncertainty as the Brexit date approaches and will likely lead to pressure on the backstop – by most readings the single biggest reason for the massive Tory rebellion which humiliated Mrs May last night. Earlier this week, Simon Coveney warned that Ireland would have to "hold its nerve". He repeated the thought yesterday. Clearly, Mr Coveney is expecting pressure from somewhere.
"Breathtaking" was the verdict of one senior Government source last night when the word came through. "Her deal is dead," said another figure. Dublin sources expect Mrs May to survive today's confidence vote, with the Brexiteer ultras of the European Research Group and the DUP saying that they would back her. But like the rest of the EU, the Irish Government will wonder: to what end?
For months, the Taoiseach and ministers have refused to become embroiled in the Westminster parliamentary battles or the civil war among the Tories. As far as they were concerned, they said repeatedly, the British prime minister speaks for the United Kingdom. Technically, that remains the case. But Mrs May no longer speaks with any authority or credibility. She no longer leads in any meaningful way. She is the servant of parliament.
In general, the seeping of power away from Mrs May’s administration and towards the House of Commons increases the likelihood of a softer Brexit, and therefore an outcome more to Dublin’s liking. The House is much less Brexit-inclined than the Tory government. For all the sound and fury, it’s easy to forget that the desire for a hard or no-deal Brexit is very much a minority one.
But the House of Commons is a body of 650 men and women. That is not a group that it is possible to negotiate with. The House can only express its view, and indicate what sort of deal it would pass. It is the British government – assuming it survives – that must negotiate, agree, conclude. Which brings us back to Mrs May – in office but not in power, awaiting her instructions from a deeply divided parliament.
Whatever happens, this is all going to take some time. Sources in Dublin last night had differing takes on the consequences of Mrs May’s massive defeat – but they all agreed that it almost certainly means the article 50 process was likely to be paused to allow for parliament to express its view, and the EU to respond.
This at least will give the Government more time to prepare for a no-deal Brexit. On the available evidence, it could certainly use all the time it gets.
