Same-sex marriage victory the political highlight

The political highlight of the year wasn’t the usual rough and tumble of party politics but a referendum that drew worldwide attention and changed the way Ireland is viewed across the globe.

The decision of the Irish people to give their approval to same-sex marriage, and to do so by an emphatic margin, is something that nobody could have foreseen just a few short years ago.

During the last general election campaign in 2011, Enda Kenny was clearly uncomfortable when pressed by journalists about whether he favoured same-sex marriage and he declined to give any commitment on the issue.

Mind you his Labour Coalition partners were prepared to make the commitment and in the programme for government they got approval for the establishment of a constitutional convention as the first step to progressing the issue to a referendum on constitutional change.

Former Labour leader Eamon Gilmore declared that gay marriage was the civil rights issue of the current generation and his backing for constitutional change ultimately saw the Government bring forward its proposal to amend article 40 of the Constitution, which defines the institution of marriage.

When the Yes campaign got under way it managed to galvanise the backing of younger voters in a way that normal political issues have long failed to do. The mobilisation of the Yes vote included the unprecedented spectacle of young emigrants returning home in their droves simply to vote in the referendum.

Opinion polls indicated from a long way out that the referendum would be carried, but the Yes campaign refused to take anything for granted and put in a huge effort to ensure victory.

The Taoiseach’s vigorous campaign in favour of a Yes vote was one illustration of the remarkable mood change on the issue in just a few short years. That mood was reflected in the scenes of joy in Dublin Castle on the day of the count as results came in.

Reservations

The No campaign did not generate the same level of commitment and it is probably fair to say that a considerable number of older voters who had reservations about the constitutional change kept their views to themselves in the face of the overwhelming support of the media and all the established parties for a Yes vote.

A positive aspect of the campaign was the generally respectful way the debate was conducted by both sides. The result was that many No voters were prepared to admit they even took some pleasure in the wave of happiness that followed the outcome.

One poignant footnote to the result was that Eamon Gilmore was no longer Labour leader by the time the referendum came around. He got a lot of honourable mention on the day but that was little consolation for the former tánaiste who was so instrumental in bringing it all about.

Another paradox is that the Labour Party, despite the fact that it was so in tune with the public mood on same-sex marriage, got absolutely no political bounce from the result.

Some of the party's TDs found it particularly galling that the Taoiseach and Fine Gael, who had been so unenthusiastic about the referendum idea in the first place, seemed to reap a much bigger political dividend from the result.

Labour had a similar problem when it came to getting credit for the economic recovery, which gathered pace as the year progressed. The recovery is evident not just in abstract figures relating to gross national product, but in concrete job creation and increased consumer spending.

One of the key political trends during the year was the steady increase in the satisfaction rating of the Government in line with the rising economic tide.

For instance, a year ago, The Irish Times Ipsos MRBI poll showed the Government with a miserable satisfaction rating of 17 per cent and a massive dissatisfaction rating of 79 per cent. Taking the two together the Coalition had a negative rating of 61 per cent.

Satisfaction doubled

Fast forward 12 months to the latest Irish Times poll and the Government's satisfaction rating has doubled to 34 per cent and its dissatisfaction rating is down to 57 per cent, giving it a negative rating of 23 per cent. That is a healthy trend on the eve of the election.

The problem for the Coalition is that over the same period the number of people saying they will vote Fine Gael has jumped from 19 per cent to 30 per cent, but the number saying they intend to vote for Labour has only inched up from 6 per cent to 7 per cent.

Unless Labour can capitalise on the recovery to a much greater extent, the party will suffer severe losses in the election and the prospects of the Coalition winning a second term will take a knock as a result.

In an effort to boost its electoral chances Michael Noonan and Brendan Howlin presided over a budget in October that contained a range of benefits for voters across the social spectrum at all levels of income.

There was a flurry of speculation after the budget that the Taoiseach would dissolve the Dáil and head to the country in November to capitalise on the improving mood, but this was challenged in some testy public statements from Tánaiste and Labour leader Joan Burton insisting the election should not take place until early 2016.

After making a number of ambiguous statements, Kenny finally announced that the election would not take place until early in 2016. Labour TDs were mightily relieved. Most of them believe their fortunes will only start to improve when the impact of the budget filters through in January, but they were grateful for the respite in any case.

Only time will tell if they are right.

Of the various political issues that bubbled up during the year the controversy over Denis O'Brien's purchase of Siteserv proved the longest-running, while the Taoiseach's role in the departure of Garda commissioner Martin Callinan was another that refused to go away.

In the end, though, it seems that the economy trumped them all as the issue that will have the greatest bearing on the outcome of the election.