Public support for lockdown will nose dive once vulnerable vaccinated

With the extension of the current lockdown, and the prospect of a slow and cautious reopening commencing in April, the coming weeks will see fierce debate about the nature, pace and timing of the lifting of the Covid-19 restrictions which have now been in place since Christmas.

Today's poll gives an insight into the views of the public on the issues that will be central to that debate, and to the decisions that will follow.

The complicated questions policymakers will have to answer in the coming weeks will orbit around a single simple question: how quickly should we reopen social and economic life? Already there is a sense among a minority (31 per cent) of the public that the restrictions should be eased. They are in a minority in the numbers, but there are signs that will change.

The responses to the series of questions about Covid policy show graduated and nuanced views by the public. There is also a basic coherence to them. While there is caution, there is also an impatience to lift restrictions, which – the poll suggests – is likely to grow once the elderly and vulnerable are vaccinated.

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There is also a clear rejection of the zero-Covid proposal, which has gained significant political and media traction in recent weeks, and is supported by several opposition parties.

Participants in the poll were asked: “Are you in favour of a ‘Living with Covid’ strategy and getting back to normal once the elderly and vulnerable have been vaccinated, or are you in favour of zero-Covid which would mean keeping restrictions in place until Covid has been all but eliminated?”

Living with Covid

In response, 68 per cent said they favoured the living with Covid option, while less than half that number, 30 per cent, said they favoured zero-Covid. There is clearly a substantial minority in favour of the zero-Covid option: but it is very definitely a minority.

The urge to reopen – but also to protect the vulnerable from the consequences of an overhasty reopening – underpins the responses to the range of policy questions.

Voters also clearly distinguish between what they regard as high priorities for reopening – such as schools, and construction – and less important aspects, such as pubs and restaurants. Just 6 per cent of respondents want pubs and restaurants reopened immediately; 44 per cent want the schools open immediately. Just 15 per cent want retail reopened immediately; 43 per cent want construction open.

Mostly there is a large middle ground that wants reopening before the summer, or sooner, though a noticeable exception is the pubs and restaurants, perhaps blamed for their role in the Christmas wave of infections; 58 per cent of people say they shouldn’t be opened until after the summer.

Elderly and vulnerable

There is also evidence of a significant age divide in today’s numbers. In general, the under-35s want to go faster on everything, while the over-65s are more wary.

However, there is also significant evidence of common ground: on the question of seeking a return to normal after the elderly and vulnerable are vaccinated, or waiting until Covid-19 has been “all but eliminated” , the age breakdowns show little divergence between youngest and oldest cohorts. In both cases, it’s about a 70:30 split in favour of trying to return to normal once the first rounds of vaccinations have been completed. In practice, of course, this is some months ahead of the alternative.

This holds an important message for policy. If hospital and mortality numbers fall – as they should do in the coming weeks, as vaccinations take effect – the poll suggests there is likely to be strong support for reopening. We should not forget the public’s ability to change its mind on reopening and locking down in response to changing conditions, as they have done several times in the past. But the vaccine looks set to change things enormously.

Put it another way: the public willingness to put up with lockdown will be significantly diminished once the vulnerable are vaccinated. That holds profound implications for policymaking in the near future, and is the most important message of this poll.