Pressure from coronavirus, Brexit and SF surge may push FF and FG together

The growing public health threat from the coronavirus and its already evident economic impact, the start of the negotiations between the UK and the EU on a trade agreement, and a weekend opinion poll showing support for Sinn Féin rising to 35 per cent are all factors likely to nudge Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael towards discussions on a possible coalition government.

Taoiseach Leo Varadkar on Monday released a video message again urging other parties to form a government. But coming a day after he wrote an article in the Sunday Independent attacking Sinn Féin and accusing it of encouraging online hate speech and of financial irregularities, Fianna Fáil sources asked how Varadkar could reasonably expect any other party to form a government with Sinn Féin.

Meaningful discussions on a government between Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil still appear as far away as ever

In his article, Varadkar also said that Sinn Féin had not fully embraced “our constitutional democracy” and that describing the State as the “Free State” or the “Southern State” – as many Sinn Féin TDs do – was “like burning a Tricolour before our eyes”.

Nevertheless, meaningful discussions on a government between Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil still appear as far away as ever, despite recent private contacts between prominent members of both.

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Delegations from the two parties are expected to meet this week for a “policy exchange” before the Dáil assembles again on Thursday, but there is as yet no sign of full discussions on a possible coalition.

The economic effects of the measures taken to combat the possibility of a pandemic are already having an effect

Both Government and Fianna Fáil sources, however, say they expect outside events to push the two parties towards meaningful negotiations after St Patrick’s Day.

They believe that the worsening coronavirus outbreak will increase the pressure to form a government. Although there are only two recorded cases of the virus in Ireland at present, more are expected.

Economic effects

Meanwhile, the economic effects of the measures taken to combat the possibility of a pandemic are already having an effect, with stock market jitters and downgraded economic forecasts.

In Brussels, the negotiations on a new trade agreement between the UK and the EU got under way after a period of sabre-rattling in London and tough talk in response from EU institutions and member states.

Failure to agree a deal would once again raise the prospect of a no-deal Brexit at the end of this year, with some analysts suggesting that such an outcome is now much more likely.

Insiders – including some involved in the government formation process – expect that the combined effect of the coronavirus and the return of Brexit to the political agenda will erode public patience and pile pressure on Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil to commence real discussions.

The poll showing support for Sinn Féin has jumped to 35 per cent since the general election, while support for Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil has fallen, is likely to harden opinion in the two parties against a second general election in the coming months.

The options are narrowing for everyone.