Power of brevity replaces brevity of power

Nobody remembers the guy who spoke for two hours before Abraham Lincoln rose to his feet to deliver the Gettysburg Address.

Few speeches have endured as robustly as those 272 words delivered at the site of the famous battlefield, with its perfect definition of a democratic state.

“Four score and seven years ago our fathers brought forth on this continent, a new nation, conceived in Liberty, and dedicated to the proposition that all men are created equal…”

Or the rousing last sentence expressing the hope “that government of the people, by the people, for the people, shall not perish from the earth”.

Well if 272 words was all the rage for US presidents in 1863, it is 140 characters in 2016.

Donald Trump is president-elect but has yet to show any signs of becoming presidential in manner or sentiment.

He continues to use Twitter like a troll.

In the last 48 hours he has insulted China and had a big dig at Saturday Night Live, the comedy show that has lampooned him. He was especially unimpressed with actor Alec Baldwin's impression of him (which is magnificent by the way!).

“Just tried watching Saturday Night Live - unwatchable!,” he harrumphed. “Totally biased, not funny and the Baldwin impersonation just can’t get any worse. Sad.”

And from yesterday: “If the press would cover me accurately and honourably, I would have far less reason to tweet. Sadly, I don’t know if that will ever happen.”

I somehow doubt US school kids will be learning those tweets off by heart in the future.

Impetuous and provocative, they are sophisticated in their own way, reflecting a cynicism and a nihilism that has become pervasive in Britain, in the United States, and through the EU.

The latest domino to fall in that chain is Italian prime minister Matteo Renzi. Foolishly, like David Cameron in the United Kingdom, he pledged his political future on a referendum to reform Italy's imperfect system of perfect bicameralism.

The youthful promise Renzi displayed two years ago had all but evaporated. With high unemployment, and stagnant growth and incomes, the referendum was always going to be as much a verdict on Renzi as it was on his ambitious electoral reforms. And he got a massive thumbs-down.

His defeat now paves the way for Beppe Grillo, the comedian who leads the Five State movement, to stake a claim for power in the next year. His strategy follows the classic pattern of Trumpism - populist, protest-led, visceral, provocative and anti-establishment.

It is our lead story today.

The same qualities are true of those who campaigned against Brexit, the Front National in France and the other-right wing movements gouging at the margins in the Netherlands, Finland and Austria (although a Green became that country's unlikely president at the weekend). That populism manifested itself on the left too - with Podemos in Spain and Syriza in Greece.

While the left and the right populist movements are poles apart on ideology, their approach is eerily similar, and their common problem is what to do if they actually attain power.

The anger and rhetoric and froth are impossible to convert into action. Assuming the responsibility of government (and all its painful compromises) triggers an immediate sense of betrayal from its core supporters. The reality is you cannot govern without selling out.

We went through a deeper trough than the United States, Italy, France and Britain, so why has there not been an anti-establishment revolt here? Well there was. And it was significant.

But perhaps it was not as noticeable because it did not alight on one personality or one party. It spread across a whole range of Independents and micro-parties, all drumming out anti-establishment, populist, crowd-pleasing messages.

Most of them continue to occupy that space - from a host of Independents to the leftist AAA-PBP.

In some ways, Shane Ross was the most skilled, our closest comparison to Beppe Grillo. His Independent Alliance also shared many similarities with the Italian Five Star movement, including an aversion to being whipped.

Maybe that is why Ross is so reluctant to make any decision as a Minister. For every decision means another little loss of the political currency he has built up for 30 years - that of outrage and of being a contrarian. Both of those commodities are not compatible with governing.

As Abe might say: Sad emoticon, exclamation mark #bummer.

A show of cop-on from the cops

The vote of rank-and-file gardaí on the Labour Court’s €50 million offer on allowances was surprising. The surprise was not so much the fact the GRA accepted the offer but the rather resounding nature of the victory.

As Fiach Kelly reports: "There was some surprise in Government circles at the strength of GRA approval for the deal, with 75 per cent voting to accept it. The turnout for the ballot was 69 per cent.

“It had been feared in recent weeks the GRA, which has more than 10,000 members, might reject the offer, but sources in the organisation said members realised the Government was unlikely to make a more generous offer.”

There is a technical phrase for that. It is called taking a bite of a reality sandwich.

Minister for Public Expenditure Paschal Donohoe presents like a marshmallow but is more like hard toffee when it comes to giving.

When the teachers and the nurses piled in behind the guards looking for their restoration, they were met by a guy who was infinitely polite but also infinitely obdurate. He basically said No to all the claims.

However, the decision by the Labour Court in favour of the gardaí certainly threw Donohoe's Department, which let it be known it had not greeted the decision with pom-poms.

For its part, the ASTI has got little change so far and faces a tough choice about the next phase of its campaign.

It is likely Fianna Fáil would have backed whatever stance the Government took in the event of the guards rejecting the deal on the table.

Despite reports that some leading members of the GRA were unhappy at what was offered, the GRA most likely made a cool calculation that the deal is as good as it can get at this moment of time.

It does not put a full stop to further turbulence with public sector unions that will test Donohoe in a way he has not been tested before. He is the Minister du jour in his party at present and is now being bracketed with Leo and Simon Mór in the leadership proposition, even though he is ultra loyal to Kenny.

The first three months of 2017 will tell us a lot more about how strong his leadership claims might be.