Overpromising USC change will damage Coalition

As Leinster House digested the results of the latest Irish Times/ Ipsos MRBI poll last week, those in the Labour ranks had two reasons to be disappointed.

The first and obvious one was the rating for the party itself, which came in at 6 per cent, a three-point drop on the last poll in October.

Not only did the October poll show the party inching back towards its historic support base of about 10 per cent, it also had Tánaiste Joan Burton as the most popular party leader on 37 per cent.

The October poll had both Taoiseach Enda Kenny and Fianna Fáil leader Michéal Martin on 26 per cent.

Burton's ratings were a huge jump on the last satisfaction rating – 20 per cent – recorded for her predecessor as Labour leader, Eamon Gilmore, in April.

It made sense for Labour to try to rebuild around Burton’s popularity, and post- budget literature was plastered with pictures of a smiling Tánaiste.

But the personal approval ratings in last week's poll – a 12-per cent drop for her to 25, the same as Michéal Martin and one behind Gerry Adams – compounded the poor Labour ratings.

One Labour Minister, when informed of the main poll findings, asked about Burton’s figures, hoping to find some crumb of comfort. The answer was met with a thumbs down and a “well that’s that, then”.

Recent days have seen strong statements from the Labour leader on junior bondholders in Anglo Irish Bank and changes to the Universal Social Charge .

“She’s our only hope,” said one senior Labour figure at the weekend, in response to a suggestion Burton was being relaunched, much in the same way various budget measures were being relaunched.

Others dispute this and say Burton has been consistent in her approach to issues such as the USC. To be fair to Burton, she did make tax reform a key plank of her campaign for the leadership of the Labour Party, and those around her spoke of a process to "emasculate" the USC. But any drastic and immediate change to the USC is "pie in the sky", according to Labour Minister of State Kevin Humphreys.

Arguably, Gilmore’s greatest mistakes as Labour leader were not made in government but before the 2011 election, when the party created false expectations and made promises it couldn’t keep.

Similarly, the seeds of the Coalition’s awful autumn can be partially traced back to various unrealistic promises on tax and wages over the summer months.

Toned down

Perhaps conscious of this and wary of giving the impression that substantial changes will be made to the hugely unpopular USC, the language used by both Government parties has calmed somewhat over the past 24 hours. The focus switched to underlining the budget tax changes that will come into effect in January.

The reality is Budget 2015 hit on a formula that will be used as a template for Budget 2016: a cut in the higher rate of income tax, increasing the threshold at which people enter the higher rate and cutting some USC rates by a half a percentage point, with clawbacks for higher earners on a new rate of USC.

Promising even more substantial change to the USC will only do the Coalition more harm.