Taoiseach Micheál Martin doesn't want to be "goaded" into "heightening tensions" during an election campaign in Northern Ireland, he says.
So he is hesitant answering questions about the DUP's ambiguity on whether it would join a powersharing administration in Stormont in the event it was headed by a Sinn Féin first minister.
And he is careful when asked about Sinn Féin’s reported soft-pedalling on a Border poll during that election campaign.
But not all that careful.
On the DUP’s choices, he says failure to participate in the Good Friday institutions after Assembly elections would be a denial of democracy.
On Sinn Féin, he says: "I don't want to get into the election campaign right now and be accused of interfering", but adds that the party's perceived reluctance to put its campaign for a Border poll at the centre of its election campaign in Northern Ireland is "telling in itself".
He says it shows Sinn Féin realises that the public in the North is more interested in hearing about healthcare and the cost of living and other “bread and butter” issues than endlessly focusing on the constitutional question.
But politics in the North is no longer just about the two traditions. “You can see the shifting sands,” he says. “People are moving in different directions.”
Martin dwells on this growth in the proportion of the population in the North who refuse to define themselves by the old allegiances, and knows that they will be crucial to the way politics develops. Along with many people in the North, he says, they “want their politics to work on a day-to-day basis”.
Might the binary vision of the Belfast Agreement have to be revisited to take account of this emerging reality? Martin is cautious here. “In the fullness of time, yes.” But in the meantime, the agreement has to be worked.
Shared Island
Martin is eager to talk about the Shared Island initiative, likely to form part of his political legacy. He says Fianna Fáil is entirely comfortable with the Shared Island agenda, rather than following Sinn Féin's lead of prioritising a Border poll.
Shared Island, he says, is “both in the De Valera and the Lemass tradition” in the party – it doesn’t ignore the constitutional question but it concentrates on practical day-to-day co-operation across a wide range of areas.
The interview covers two further topics.
On neutrality and how it might be compatible with the emerging desire in the EU for closer security and defence co-operation, Martin says he is “entirely comfortable” with the ambition of the “strategic compass” plan agreed by EU leaders at the recent summit.
He has spoken in the past of the need for a debate on the future of Irish neutrality, and reiterates that now, suggesting it could be a subject for a citizens’ assembly, though he stresses he is not wedded to any particular form. He says, however, that people may not realise the extent to which Ireland already co-operates with other member states in the EU’s defence arrangements.
"Do people have a full appreciation of the degree to which we've been evolving our participation in European Union security and defence issues over the last 10-15 years? Probably not."
He cites the honourable tradition of neutrality and its role in allowing Ireland to develop an independent foreign policy. But he clearly believes the war in Ukraine has changed the situation in Europe, and Ireland can't bury its head in the sand. When he met Finnish prime minister Sanna Marin recently, he says, she told him: "Basically everything we were taught as schoolchildren to fear or to be worried about has come to pass. So this changes everything."
Centrist challenge
The Trump years and the invasion of Ukraine have made clear that Europe is not as secure as it once supposed. “And we’re part of the European Union. We can’t ignore that.”
Martin will leave the office of taoiseach in seven months’ time. Between now and then, he says, his priority is to keep the pressure on delivering housing. He acknowledges that this is not a problem that will be solved by the time he leaves office but insists that “the Fianna Fáil contribution will be that we started building houses at scale again. But we’ve got to do it in a way that sustains for 10 years.”
Notwithstanding the Government’s difficulties on turf, he cites climate action as a priority and says, “We held the line on the carbon tax”. Isn’t this the key challenge for centrist politicians – to know when to hold the line on reforms, but also to know when to compromise to maintain public assent? He agrees enthusiastically.
