More voters are optimistic about future, research claims

Internal research commissioned by the Coalition has shown a significant increase in the number of people who expect their personal financial circumstances will improve in the next 12 months.

The research, conducted by Red C, has also shown a smaller rise in the view that the economy will improve between now and next summer.

The poll results are being interpreted by Fine Gael and Labour as encouraging for their prospects in a general election because the research also shows that those with a more optimistic outlook on the economy and their personal circumstances are more likely to vote for Government parties.

Voters who believe their personal circumstances are likely to improve rose from 36 per cent in December 2014 to 44 per cent in June 2015, when this poll was conducted.

A total of 67 per cent of respondents also believe the economy will improve, a three-point increase since December.

A total of 60 per cent of Labour supporters and 56 per cent of Fine Gael supporters were of the view that their personal circumstances will improve.

Clear difference

However, while there is similar optimism among Fine Gael and Labour voters about the future, there is a clear difference about the present state of the economy between the two parties.

More than half of Fine Gael supporters state they have already benefitted from the improvement compared to 36 per cent of Labour supporters.

Supporters of Fianna Fáil, Sinn Féin and Independents show less optimism about the economy improving.

However, in an interesting finding, the percentage of Sinn Féin supporters who believe their personal circumstances will improve has increased from 24 per cent to 39 per cent.

Previous polling of public sentiment suggested voters agreed the economy was improving but said they could not see that improvement reflected in their personal circumstances.

Electoral strategists in Labour have been of the view that “gap” has acted as a drag on the party’s support, which is still languishing in single digits.

While Labour supporters are less likely than their Fine Gael counterparts to say an improvement is already evident, its strategists believe that increased optimism among voters about the future will allow the party entice greater support, bringing its support levels into double digits.

A senior source said yesterday there would be a difference in emphasis among both Government parties.

The Fine Gael focus will be on a macro message of economic recovery and stability, lower taxes and jobs.

In contrast, the message from Labour will be more personal with an argument to individual voters that their circumstances will improve, and that they can expect better services such as childcare, free GP care, better education and other social supports.

Positive sentiment

There has been a 12-point increase in positive sentiment among the 25-34 age group.

“That group is not just a bull’s-eye target for us but also for Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil. Our policy offering will be tailored to them,” said the source.

However, there is also a discernible gap between social groups, with 51 per cent of higher earners having a positive disposition compared to 39 per cent in the lower social groups.

The telephone poll was conducted among a representative sample of 1,000 voters.