Majority want united Ireland but there is resistance to steps that need to be taken

This week’s Irish Times/Ipsos MRBI poll confirms the nation’s desire for a united Ireland, but not at any price, and not yet.

Public opinion is strongly in favour of uniting the island. Between Sunday and Wednesday of this week we polled 1,200 eligible voters on the question “if there was a referendum asking people whether they want Northern Ireland to remain in the United Kingdom or to unify with the Republic of Ireland, how would you vote?”

A solid majority of 62 per cent answered in favour of uniting Northern Ireland with the Republic of Ireland. Just 16 per cent said they would vote to keep Northern Ireland as part of the United Kingdom, while 13 per cent were undecided and 8 per cent revealed they would not vote.

Across all population cohorts, the poll registered majority support for the proposition.

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Support is highest in Dublin (68 per cent) and lowest in Connacht/Ulster (55 per cent). Those from farming backgrounds (52 per cent in favour and 25 per cent against) are less keen on unification compared to other socio-economic groups.

Age is not obviously correlated with opinion on a united Ireland. Voters over the age of 65 are hugely in favour (66 per cent support), but so too are 25- to 34-year-olds (67 per cent in favour).

As expected Sinn Féin voters are overwhelming pro-unity (78 per cent in favour and just 8 per cent against). The least enthusiastic political franchise are Fine Gael voters (58 per cent in favour and 22 per cent against).

Compromises

This week’s poll also probed for opinion on some of the compromises that may have to be made to achieve a united Ireland. We know from referendum polling that the gap usually narrows, and sometimes closes entirely, once all the consequences of a yes vote are considered.

The Irish electorate wishes for a united Ireland, but how intense is their desire? There are compromises that, should they be required, would be met with deep resistance.

There is a degree of acceptance of the more practical or political compromises that may be needed, such as having closer ties to the UK (47 per cent accept) or having unionist politicians as part of the government in Dublin (44 per cent accept).

On the other hand, if a united Ireland were to require higher taxes (15 per cent accept) or that less money is spent on public services (13 per cent accept), this would be a difficult pill for most of the electorate to swallow. Those aged under 35 are particularly hostile to the idea of higher taxes, with just 11 per cent on board.

On the question of paying for a united Ireland, Sinn Féin voters are not that different to the population generally, with only 20 per cent accepting of higher taxes and 14 per cent accepting of a reduction in spending on public services.

Emotion is as important as reason, maybe more important, when making choices. Symbols matter and a new flag (16 per cent would accept) and a new National Anthem (21 per cent would accept), if essential, are likely to be significant bumps on the road to unification.

Interestingly, those most invested in achieving a united Ireland will struggle the hardest to accept the concept of a shared identity. Among Sinn Féin voters, 83 per cent would not accept a new flag and 78 per cent would not accept a new National Anthem.

Re-joining the commonwealth as part of the deal would be acceptable to just 14 per cent of Irish citizens.

Sacrifices

Perhaps appreciating that there are many issues to be considered and compromises to be made, and possibly acknowledging their broad unwillingness to make the sacrifices asked, voters registered a lukewarm commitment to achieving a united Ireland. Only 20 per cent of those polled deemed unification a “priority” for them, while 52 per cent said they would like to see a united Ireland “some day”.

When we look only at those in favour of a united Ireland, we find that 29 per cent agreed unity is a “priority” for them, but more than twice as many (63 per cent) answered they would like to get there “some day”.

When is “some day”? For 15 per cent of voters now is the right time to hold a referendum. A referendum in the next 10 years was preferred by 42 per cent. Some would like to wait more than 10 years (16 per cent) and some never want a referendum to be held (13 per cent). A further 14 per cent were undecided.

Similar to our attitudes toward climate change, on a united Ireland there is consensus among the public as regards the direction of travel, but not on the steps that need to be taken.