Leo the Green: Fine Gael looks to Northern nationalists

Good morning.

As is almost always the case when parties unveil high-profile or celebrity candidates, the initial reaction of the political bubble is to be underwhelmed.

So it proved again yesterday, when a few hours of fevered speculation led up to Fine Gael unveiling former SDLP leader Mark Durkan as one of two candidates for the Dublin European Parliament constituency.

Our report of the launch is here. However, the tone of the event elevated this parachute-candidate presentation to a level above others because of what it said about Leo Varadkar and his Fine Gael party.

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The most interesting aspect was not Durkan’s candidacy in and of itself but the fact Varadkar cast it as a furthering of his December 2017 promise to Northern nationalists that no Irish Government would ever leave them behind.

Durkan said his candidacy was following through on that promise. The immediacy of Sinn Féin’s attack on the move indicated it felt somewhat stung.

Party spokespeople advocated their policy of allocating the two extra MEP seats given to the Republic because of Brexit to Northern Ireland, and then letting voters in the North decide.

Non-Shinners point out, of course, this would mean Sinn Féin would win at least one of the seats.

Fianna Fáilers suggested Midlands North West, the closest constituency to Durkan’s Derry base, would have been a better option and said Dubliners are likely to want someone focused on issues in the capital.

Yet Fine Gaelers have not forgotten that Varadkar’s biggest poll boost came after that initial December 2017 Brexit agreement that contained the backstop and led to his pledge to Northern nationalists. They long to see the party’s poll ratings return to that mid-30s high from the current, consistent rating of around 30 per cent.

As one source yesterday said of Varadkar’s continuing overtures to Northern nationalists: “plenty of votes in that.”

The selection convention will be held in Clontarf Castle tomorrow night to rubber stamp former tánaiste Frances Fitzgerald and Durkan as Fine Gael candidates.

Brexit: Back to Brussels

British attorney general Geoffrey Cox returns to Brussels today to meet Michel Barnier, the EU’s chief Brexit negotiator, ahead of the next expected series of votes in the House of Commons on Brexit next week.

As always, the backstop is at the centre of talks between the two sides.

There are a number of strands to the talks, including the British emphasis on arbitration mechanisms around the backstop to ensure Cox can change his previous legal advice that the UK could be trapped within its mechanisms permanently.

Another of those strands, we report this morning, would be to "map out" how future technologies could be used to keep the border between Ireland and Northern Ireland open in the future.

Nobody in the EU or in the Irish Government believes such technology can do the job that Brexiteers have always said it could.

However, Dublin and Brussels have maintained they would be willing to look at such mechanisms, mostly as a sop to hardline Brexiteers who have championed approaches such as the so-called Malthouse Compromise.

The pompously titled policy arose in recent weeks when Tory Brexiteers and Remainers joined to advocate the policy, which proposes the UK and EU negotiate a free-trade agreement after Brexit and that technology and advanced customs procedures be used to eliminate the need for any infrastructure at the Irish Border.

In essence it resurrected the previously dismissed idea of “maximum facilitation” - or max-fac - which would leave some checks on goods passing the Irish Border to technologies.

After establishing a working group to work on its policies, Theresa May quietly shelved it as a viable policy but is perhaps looking at a way of including her own sop on the issue in whatever emerges from the current talks.

The document being worked on between the UK and Brussels now seems to be a patchwork quilt of a number of different measures designed to appease different camps in the House of Commons rather than one big bang aimed at one element of the backstop or the withdrawal agreement.

Best Reads

Emmanuel Macron's full letter on the future of the EU, which forms our lead this morning, is here.

In the Irish Independent, Tom Brady reports armed support units will shortly be deployed around the clock in the Border region, under plans being finalised by Garda management to deal with the Brexit fallout.

Playbook

The Cabinet meets today for an official meeting this morning after a more informal session in Farmleigh last night.

Dáil

Leaders’ Questions is at 2pm, followed by the Order of Business.

Motions then follow in the Brexit withdrawal legislation, the Istanbul Convention and on post-Brexit social security arrangements between Ireland and the UK.

Taoiseach’s Questions is at 3pm, with Paschal Donohoe on public expenditure questions afterward.

The Brexit omnibus Bill will then be taken between 5pm and 11pm.

Seanad

The Judicial Appointments Commission Bill 2017 resumes committee stage again.

Minister for European Affairs Helen McEntee will then take statements on “the Future of Europe and the Value of European Union Membership to Ireland”.

Committees

Foreign Affairs and Trade has a session on the refugee situation in Syria with representatives from Concern, Trocáire and Goal. Minister for Defence Paul Kehoe will also give the committee an update on the White Paper on defence.

Kehoe will also go through the 2019 estimates for his department and army pensions.

Communications, Climate Action and the Environment scrutinises the Microgeneration Support Scheme Bill and EU legislative proposals.

Agriculture, Food and the Marine scrutinises EU legislative proposals and post-Brexit changes to the European Maritime and Fisheries Fund by reason of the withdrawal of the United Kingdom from the Union.

It will also examine “authorisations for Union fishing vessels in United Kingdom waters and fishing operations of United Kingdom fishing vessels in Union waters”.