Kenny has unenviable election choice, says Ahern

Former taoiseach Bertie Ahern has said he does not envy the choice Enda Kenny has to make in choosing the timing of the general election.

Mr Ahern said his governments had gone the full term, but that had always happened during the summer months.

Speaking to The Irish Times, the former taoiseach said his successor had a difficult choice between holding an election in November or in early spring.

He said he had a view, but felt precluded from sharing it because of his position as a former holder of the office.

“The choice Enda Kenny has, he can only have a winter election or a winter election,” he said.

Mr Ahern led Fianna Fáil to three general election successes in 1997, 2002 and 2007, before stepping down in 2008. When the economy began to collapse later that year, the policies of Mr Ahern and his administrations were retrospectively blamed for the crash and ensuing deep recession.

Mr Ahern was always regarded as having astute and instinctual skills for electoral strategy. In that sense his insights give a sense of the thinking that might be at play.

He said the decision would be solely the Taoiseach’s, ultimately. “If he is looking at the timing he would look for example at the budget, and the impact of the budget.

“Does that make the biggest [difference] when the budget is delivered or is there a bigger call when people see it in their pay packets in January?

Summer time

“He would have to look at the time of year. I went to full term but my terms ended in May. The nights were bright and it was summer time.

“You also need to look at the calendar and see if next year is a big political year or sporting year – 2016 is obviously a big historical year. You have to balance all that.

“Then, he will have to ask himself: ‘Am I ready? Have I the manifesto finished and right?’

“They are all the factors that have to be taken into account. At some stage, you have to leave it in the lap of the gods and go to the [Phoenix] park,” he added.

The Taoiseach must ask the President formally to permit dissolution of the Dáil.

Earlier this year Mr Kenny said the election would be held next year, but in recent days he has refused to be drawn on a date in the face of persistent questioning.

Yesterday, Tánaiste Joan Burton's spokesman said she and the Labour Party favoured a spring 2016 election.

He said she and the Taoiseach “will have that conversation” at the appropriate time.

The Taoiseach’s spokesman pointed out the timing of the election was the “constitutional prerogative of the Taoiseach [alone]”.