Irish Times poll: Shifting Covid-19 landscape weighs heavily on public mood

The latest Ipsos MRBI public opinion poll for The Irish Times indicates broad public approval of the Government's handling of the Covid-19 pandemic. Our poll shows 58 per cent of Irish adults agree the Government is doing a good job of managing the crisis, with 36 per cent of the view they are not doing a good job. Only 6 per cent of those interviewed did not offer an opinion.

While the Government’s management of the crisis is regarded positively by the majority, public confidence has weakened considerably since June, when 88 per cent of voters endorsed the Government’s strategy.

This unusually high level of 88 per cent approval was recorded when Covid-19 numbers were dropping and cross-party consensus that underpinned the nation’s approach to tackling Covid-19 was still intact. Back in June even supporters of the main opposition party, Sinn Féin, were soundly behind the Government, with 78 per cent saying they thought the Government was doing a good job.

In the last few months the landscape has shifted considerably. Covid-19 numbers are on the way up again, the Dáil has reconvened and the normal business of opposition politics has resumed.

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As a result, support for the Government's strategy has dropped quite precipitously, halving among Sinn Féin voters (from 78 per cent to 39 per cent) and falling 30 points (from 99 per cent to 69 per cent) among Fine Gael voters. Only among Fianna Fáil voters has the drop been in any way modest, down from 89 per cent to 77 per cent.

The Government’s decision this week to move the entire country to Level 3 restrictions was in response to rising case numbers. The fact that the Government did not take the advice of the National Public Health Emergency Team (NPHET) to move immediately to Level 5 proved controversial, and raised questions about whether the Government or NPHET were more aligned with public opinion.

Public health

This latest national opinion poll shows the Government is closely aligned with the public on the level of restrictions in place. Those looking for more restrictions to safeguard public health (32 per cent) are balanced to a considerable extent by those looking for fewer restrictions to protect businesses and the economy (21 per cent), with the largest group (45 per cent) taking the view that the restrictions in place at the time of polling were just right.

Interviewing for this poll was conducted between Saturday and Tuesday, with about half of interviews conducted before the Government’s Level 3 announcement on Monday, and about half after the announcement.

An analysis of pre- and post-announcement data suggests the Government’s decision was a move in the right direction. Before the announcement 20 per cent of those polled were in the “too many restrictions” camp, compared to the 34 per cent in favour of more restrictions, a gap of 14 points. After the announcement, the gap narrowed to just 6 points, with 23 per cent still of the view that there were too many restrictions, while 29 per cent believed the Government did not go far enough.

A somewhat controversial topic of late has been the behaviour of young people during the crisis. Some argue that the reappearance of Covid-19 is substantially the fault of young people partying and not adhering to the restrictions, while others highlight how this generation has made huge sacrifices in order to protect the older and most vulnerable in our society.

What we know now for certain is that Covid-19 is rarely fatal among young people, so it would be reasonable to expect young people to be the least enthusiastic about introducing further restrictions. Not so. Our poll findings show attitudes to restrictions are not age dependent to any great extent, with the under-35s only marginally less likely (31 per cent) than the over-65s (33 per cent) to favour tighter restrictions.

Equilibrium

There is a socio-economic dimension to public attitudes towards Covid-19. The AB social grouping, which includes professionals, senior managers and business owners, has reached equilibrium in its appetite for restrictions, with both options – fewer or more restrictions – attracting 22 per cent support.

In contrast, the DE social grouping, which comprises unskilled workers and those dependent on State payments, are more in favour (37 per cent) than against (20 per cent) a harsher regime.

Region also plays a role in how we view the latest Covid-19 restrictions. In Dublin, which went to Level 3 on September 19th, the cohort in favour of fewer restrictions (27 per cent) is slight larger than the cohort against (25 per cent).

In Munster the mood is very different, with substantially more in favour of tightening Covid-19 restrictions (36 per cent) than are in favour of loosening them (16 per cent).

On Monday the Government decided not to go to Level 5 which, according to this poll, caused some to breathe a sigh of relief, but the decision did not manage to lift the sense of gloom that hangs over the country.

A worrying 69 per cent of the public believe the worst of the crisis has yet to come, compared to just 22 per cent who feel the worst is behind us. Whether this level of hopelessness is justified by the data is debatable. More likely it is the dark winter ahead with no end to the restrictions in sight that is weighing on the public mood.