Independents’ wavering on Apple ruling underlines Coalition’s weakness

The moment the Apple ruling was published, Independents supporting the Government did not need a maths degree to figure out that €13 billion multiplied by 0.005 per cent equalled trouble.

In the halcyon days of old politics, the band of Independents would have been jostling with Sinn Féin to be first to get to the microphones.

Within minutes, however, Sinn Féin's Pearse Doherty was demanding the Government pocket the €13 billion while simultaneously excoriating it for allowing a multinational giant to have an effective tax rate of so close to zero it didn't really matter.

Times have changed and the first rule of engagement in new politics for an Independent TD in Government is to adopt the brace position and prepare for the incoming flak.

Like Jim Gavin's Dubs, Fine Gael had set up its defensive systems before the ruling. It prepared a comprehensive briefing pack running to 20 pages, prepped all its senior Ministers to co-ordinate their responses and employed Michael Noonan in the Cian O'Sullivan sweeper role.

Contain fallout

Noonan spoke to the Independent Alliance for two hours on Monday. They had some misgivings, but he appeased many of their concerns. Still, he could not contain the fallout that came from the sheer scale of the finding.

Fine Gael stuck to the programme, saying it wanted an immediate appeal. Unsurprisingly, the Independents were not quite so enthusiastic. Cue a protracted wringing of hands.

We forget how fragile this Government’s position is. If more than one TD defects, it will be on life support. It is as tenuous as that.

If Fine Gael was hoping it could coerce its Coalition partners into a quick appeal, its hopes were dashed on Wednesday. A five-hour long Cabinet meeting ended without conclusion and was adjourned until this morning .

The Independent Alliance members in Cabinet, Shane Ross and Finian McGrath, made it clear they were not prepared to back an appeal unconditionally. Their primary demands were an early recall of the Dáil, as well as a strong commitment from the Government to demonstrate that the dice were no longer loaded in anybody's favour when it came to tax matters.

Fine Gael did not accede to the tax demands, but said it would accept an early recall of the Dáil. Noonan and Taoiseach Enda Kenny insisted the Government decision would have to be made first, then there could be an Oireachtas debate on supporting that decision. The Independent Alliance would have preferred it the other way around.

A few Fine Gael Ministers say they sense the Alliance stance is "contrived" and claim Ross would have supported the appeal on Wednesday were it not for Katherine Zappone.

The Independent Minister had just returned from the US and said she needed time to read and understand what was a complicated judgment. In the end, it was her rather than the Independent Alliance who became the hold-out.

Wide consultation

Zappone’s modus operandi is now familiar. She is a details person and will not make her mind up until she has read everything. That has meant wide consultation on this issue with economists, tax experts, academics and supporters.

She also met the Attorney General for two hours yesterday, with the prospect of a further meeting last night. It does not make for fast decisions.

Does it mean she or the others will jump ship? Unlikely.

“Do we really want the Government to fall on this?” one of those Independents asked yesterday. “I know we will take a lot of flak in the Dáil, but we need some stability for the budget next month and for Brexit.”

On a base political level, it is another reminder of the obvious: the precarious nature of this unusual Coalition.