House of Commons votes fail to clear Brexit fog

Good morning.

So if you didn't catch it last night, we're pleased to be able to relate that the British parliament held a series of votes last night and has sorted out the way forward on Brexit. Next business please.

Actually, no, that’s not what happened.

The votes in the House of Commons - perhaps predictably - didn’t go in favour of any of the options - from no deal to a second referendum and various staging posts in between - that MPs were offered in last night’s unprecedented indicative votes.

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But the results of the votes told us some important things, nonetheless: principally, the softest options command the most support. A crash-out Brexit was crushed. The Commons may not be outright remainy, but it’s not very Brexity either. And that is what will matter now.

Here is Denis Staunton's lead story.

One consequence of the votes last night is that it will be clear to the Brexiters that Mrs May’s much derided (by them) agreement with the EU is about as Brexity as they’re going to get. Will that propel them into the Aye lobbies in sufficient numbers to pass the next (and presumably final) meaningful vote? Some have already turned; others will never do it. The DUP won’t budge. Brexit-minded Labour MPs now have another sort of Brexit to vote for - and the prospect of getting it.

Yesterday, in a stunning and unprecedented move, Mrs May made the offer to her restive backbenchers that she would sacrifice herself for her deal. Will it be enough? It would be characteristic of her ill-starred leadership if making the ultimate sacrifice didn’t actually work.

Here's Denis's account of Mrs May's dramatic move at the 1922 committee and his analysis of her chances of passing the agreement.

And yet Mrs May is close to “delivering Brexit” as she says herself. But she is not there yet. Whether she can close the gap now becomes the question that Britain - and Ireland - will hang on for the coming days. Last night, most Westminster analysis suggested she was shy a few votes yet. But that, of course, could change. So could everything else.

Best British headline this morning is the one in the Guardian: “Parliament finally has its say: No, No, No, No, No, No, No, No”.

Whatever the eventual outcome - and everything is still possible - the direction of traffic, and therefore the likely destination, is either the current withdrawal agreement or a softer Brexit. Amid all the pessimism in Brussels, the supremacy of parliament over the Government has now changed the dynamic fundamentally. That in turns means an outcome much friendlier to Ireland - and a possible political victory for the Government. This has not, to put it mildly, gone unnoticed in Government.

My analysis on this point here.

Also worth listening to our podcast from yesterday morning.

Carbon tax proposals hit turbulence

Elsewhere, you might not think it, but politics and government have other business to be getting on with. Homeless numbers finally bust the 10,000 mark - a milestone that has been threatened for months, really.

Hopes for a cross-party approach to a carbon tax fell apart at the climate change committee yesterday. Everyone thought it was a great idea until it came to actually voting for tax increases when some of them discovered difficulties with the proposals. Fianna Fáil's reservations make our off-lead on the front page today

The committee’s report is due to be published today, and discussions were ongoing overnight.

Best reads

Patrick Freyne joins the march for Brexit.

Newton Emerson says that despite the difficulties the North has caused for Brexit, the UK has not turned against it.

Stephen Collins warns that letting the UK run European Parliament elections would be disastrous for the EU.

Miriam considers the Daylight Facesaving Time shared by the political parties.

Playbook

Busy day for a Thursday in the Dáil with oral PQs to Katherine Zappone, Leaders’ Questions, the weekly votes, the Government’s urgent fisheries legislation and then a contested Sinn Féin legislation on housing. The Dáil is due to sit until after ten tonight.

Quieter in the Seanad, but a busy day too at the committees, where among the visitors are the National Transport Authority to discuss the contentious Bus Connects plan. Full details on Oireachtas.ie.

The committee report on climate change is due to be published later today.

Michael D is in UCD for a major speech.

But once again, all eyes on Westminster today. The next meaningful vote - if the speaker allows - is expected to be held tomorrow. So today will be the day for arm twisting, promises, blackmail and coercion. Tough politics. Senior hurling, if you like.

Former chancellor of the exchequer George Osborne - sacked with some apparent malice by Mrs May when she became prime minister - nowadays edits the Evening Standard, the London newspaper. He has been chronicling Mrs May’s disasters with some relish in the paper.

Osborne used to the say that the first law of politics is you have to be able to count. There'll be some furious counting of heads going on in Westminster today. We'll try to keep you up to date on irishtimes.com. So stay alert – and have an utterly, thrillingly, fruity day.