Government looks to its last major tasks

Good morning.

The publication this week of the Government’s plan to tackle climate breakdown marks one more task completed by an administration running out of things to do.

The only remaining, major challenges for Leo Varadkar and his Ministers are getting one more budget through before the general election and dealing with Brexit.

The climate plan was relatively well received, with Government insiders largely expressing satisfaction with how its many measures landed in the media and with the public.

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The climate plan offered a brief respite from the Government’s recent troubles – even senior Fianna Fáilers acknowledged its launch had gone well – following a period of sustained criticism of the Government’s budgetary plans, sparked by the latest report from the Irish Fiscal Advisory Council. There was also a terrible opinion poll for Varadkar in the Sunday Times - which put Fianna Fáil on 28 per cent, five points ahead of Fine Gael.

The focus will now switch from existential issues such as saving the planet to the dull grind of managing the public finances and preparing for a budget. Minister for Finance Paschal Donohoe, struggling to rebuild the Government's reputation for fiscal competence, yesterday confirmed this year's budget will take place on October 8th, weeks before the next Brexit deadline of October 31st.

Donohoe will next week publish the summer economic statement, which will lay out what resources will be available under two Brexit scenarios: a no-deal Brexit or an orderly withdrawal of the UK from the EU later this year. Varadkar and Donohoe will have to make a call by September on which option to choose for the budget-day package.

The timetable points toward a much-tighter-than-anticipated, no-deal package being chosen. The European Council meets this week and will not do so again until October 18th - when the likely new British PM, Boris Johnson, can be expected to loudly make demands of European leaders.

So expect to hear much from Donohoe, Varadkar and others about choosing the responsible course as they opt for a no-deal budget. As always, there are other considerations at play, too.

Those at the top of Government - some of whom don’t believe a no-deal Brexit will actually happen - know Fine Gael’s reputation for fiscal competence has taken a hammering because of the national children’s hospital, the national broadband plan and recurring overruns in areas such as health.

They also say that Micheál Martin has tied the confidence-and-supply agreement, and thus the survival of the Government, to the Brexit process, and believe Fianna Fáil would therefore have no choice but to agree to a tight budgetary package, even if it causes political discomfort.

Martin, Michael McGrath and others in Fianna Fáil have in the past been wise to such political traps. One senior party TD yesterday predicted the budgetary process could see both sides try to “out prudent” each other.

Fianna Fáil attacks in recent weeks on the Government’s management of the public finances has irked Fine Gael and led to a pushback, such as at Leaders’ Questions in the Dáil yesterday when Varadkar accused Martin of asking for responsibility while simultaneously calling for increasing spending.

But we are only in June, and intentions to be cautious can give way when spending demands, such as any requests for supplementary estimates from the Department of Health, pile up in September.

In an unsually blunt PQ response to Fianna Fail's Barry Cowen, Donohoe said spending in health will be a "significant risk" if it continues at its current pace for the rest of the year.

The pressure on Simon Harris and his department will be one of the more intriguing sub-plots of the coming months, with patience said to be wearing out across Government with overruns in health.

The Department of Public Expenditure, institutionally, has not forgotten the national children’s hospital controversy, and others in the Department of Finance are determined not to allow health bust its budgets once more.

Watch that space.

Best reads

The Government has promised to guarantee the full amount of €2.1 million compensation award made to Ruth Morrissey, the terminally ill woman who took legal action at the High Court after abnormalities were undetected in routine smear tests.

The verdict in the Anna Kriegel murder case dominates the papers this morning. The standout piece is this excellent, lengthy narrative from Conor Gallagher, who covered the entire trial for The Irish Times.

In analysis, Colm Keena says a life sentence for murder is not mandatory for children.

Elsewhere, Miriam Lord is on top form. After members of the Cabinet travelled to their special climate-change meeting in a hybrid bus on Monday, Miriam says Martin and Fianna Fáil TDs will travel to their next event "by hot air balloon, propane burners replaced with hot air, generated by his parliamentary party. (Limitless reserves there)."

Denis Staunton provides a report and analysis of the Tory leadership race, including last night's underwhelming televised debate.

The fallout from the publication of the Government's plan to tackle climate change continues. Harry McGee reports on comments from John Fitzgerald, the chairman of the Climate Change Advisory Council.

Conor Pope writes that a deep retrofit of an older, bigger home will cost €30,000, while Michael McAleer says the plan's target of one million electric cars by 2030 appears unrealistic.

Dáil

Minister for Finance Paschal Donohoe is on oral questions.

Leaders’ Questions is at noon, followed by questions on promised legislation.

Taoiseach’s questions are at 1pm, with pre-European Council statements coming afterward.

Fianna Fáil has a PMB on maternity services.

There is a Government motion on Defence Forces peacekeeping, and amendments from the Seanad on the Copyright and Other Intellectual Property Law Provisions Bill 2018 will be taken.

Statements on the supplementary report of the scoping inquiry into the CervicalCheck Screening Programme is at 7pm.

Second stage of the Gaming and Lotteries (Amendment) Bill 2019 is the final Dáil business of the day.

Seanad

The Industrial Relations (Amendment) Bill 2018 is at second stage, as is the Coroners (Amendment) Bill 2018.

The Adoption (Information and Tracing) Bill 2016 is at committee stage.

The National Surplus (Reserve Fund for Exceptional Contingencies) Bill 2018 is at committee stage.

Independent senators have a PMB on Community Participation (Disability) Miscellaneous Provisions Bill 2019.

Committees

The Justice and Equality Committee resumes a previous session on direct provision and the international protection application process. In a later session, it will also examine the Land and Conveyancing Law Reform (Amendment) Bill and Courts (Establishment and Constitution) (Amendment) Bill 2019 with Minister for Justice Charlie Flanagan.

The Health Committee examines the role of voluntary bodies in the “delivery of health and personal social services”.

Transport, Tourism and Sport has a session on “advancing the low carbon transition in Irish Transport” with the National Economic and Social Council and DCU.

Public petitions considers a petition for “mandatory training for Irish mainstream School Teachers - children on spectrum disorders”.

Budgetary oversight has a session on housing costs, the cost of living, skills and tax base with Social Justice Ireland, Ictu and the Nevin Institute. It will also discuss issues in relation to inflation, housing supply, infrastructure and labour skills with Ibec and the CIF.

The Seanad select committee on Brexit has a hearing with the Central Bank, Ibec and Isme.

The Communications Committee continues its examination of the National Broadband Plan with Eoin Reeves and Donal Palcic, both from the University of Limerick.