Rank and file members of the Labour Party will face some interesting choices as they consider, over the next few weeks, who to choose as leader and deputy leader of the party. The campaigns may provide some guidance on the nature and extent of changes likely to be sought from Fine Gael in the programme for government. The indications, so far, are that established fiscal targets will be retained, while providing opportunities for greater social protection.
The elections have the capacity to focus the anger and concern of members and shake the organisation to its roots. Senior Labour Party Ministers have been widely criticised for “losing touch” with their parliamentary colleagues and supporters, while talk of a generational change is widespread. Ministers under threat may encourage constituency party members to play safe and minimise possible dislocation. But the prospect exists, not just of a more assertive Labour Party in Government, but of a drastic reshuffle of Ministers.
“Losing touch” has been a perennial complaint involving Labour ministers. It has served to disguise the disconnect that exists between the party’s rhetoric in opposition and the realities of government. On this occasion, however, Fine Gael also finds itself under severe pressure and the parties could make common cause in providing relief for the middle class and the working poor.
Such an approach would suit Fine Gael as it retained strong upper-income support in the recent elections. The notion of Labour being champion of the most deprived section of society is a chimera: Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael have always dominated that vote. Labour drew most of its strength from the working and middle classes.
Rebuilding its fractured base will not be easy. Job creation, growth, and bank debt relief would go a long way to providing the necessary resources, but uncertainty prevails. Key challenges for the Government on health, housing and administrative accountability are even more problematical. Success, if it comes, may be facilitated by decisions at European level.
Minister for Social Protection Joan Burton is favourite to replace Eamon Gilmore as party leader and Tánaiste. While adhering to fiscal targets, she spoke of the need to give equal status to social and economic repair while supporting Brendan Howlin as Minister for Public Service Reform. Those pre-emptive strikes, along with her popularity among ordinary party members, will make it extremely difficult for anyone else to mount an effective challenge to her. Elsewhere, a number of candidates are lining up to contest the position of deputy leader.
It will take more than leadership change and a clutch of new faces in Government to impress voters, and time is against Labour .
