Focus switches to replacement as Gilmore pays ultimate price

Eamon Gilmore has paid a high personal price for his behaviour in Opposition.

What he has done, and what he has failed to do, since entering Government has transformed him from a hero to a hate figure in a few short years.

Labour canvassers belatedly discovered this ahead of the recent disastrous local and European elections. It finally dawned on party TDs that their now former leader, although a decent man, had become a “lightning rod” for unhappiness about everything from water charges to medical cards.

Gilmore’s most grevious fault was to raise expectations ahead of the last General Election about what his party could achieve in Coalition with Fine Gael, implementing what was essentially the previous government’s fiscal policy.

Back in 2011, Gilmore warned his party they would face a “forest of placards” as they prepared to enter Government. His footsoldiers failed to anticipate that would translate into a dramatic shift in support away from the party and towards untested alternatives such as Independents and Sinn Féin.

Gilmore delivered a dignified departure speech this afternoon, during which he insisted the party would “hear, heed and act” on the clear message delivered by the voters on Friday.

His appeal for an “orderly transition” of power was followed by an admission that he had contemplated over the weekend: “Should I fight off all comers or should I pass on the baton?”

In some ways, he has made things easy for his panicking party. Not even those who despaired of his leadership wanted a public blood-letting and those previously loyal to Gilmore had been hoping he would go of his own accord rather than force them to wield the knife.

Attention now turns to Gilmore’s replacement, who will be appointed following Labour’s notoriously complex leadership selection process. Will the “best and the brightest” in the party back the popular (outside the party at least) Joan Burton, or perhaps the eloquent south Dublin barrister Alex White? Brendan Howlin could yet emerge as the administrator to guide the party through this troubled period. The ambitious Minister of State Alan Kelly may also involve himself in the process in some way.

Eyebrows were raised at some of the names on the motion of no confidence that emerged earlier today. Long-time “believers” such as Dominic Hannigin, Derek Nolan, Ged Nash and Aodhán Ó Ríordáin were joined by other new TDs Ciara Conway, Michael McNamara and Arthur Spring.

A combination of dashed expectation and disillusionment promoted their statement that they did not retain confidence in Gilmore.

Sources close to Gilmore are insisting he took the decision before hearing about the motion of no confidence from the group of youngish TDs. Gilmore did not take the time to contact Taoiseach Enda Kenny, however.

On hearing a statement from Mr Gilmore was imminent, Mr Kenny told reporters he had “just tried to ring him, I couldn’t get through”. We can expect much talk of the need for improved communications.

Whatever happens, this development has destabilised the already damaged coalition.