Five ways a Trump presidency will affect Ireland

The election of Donald Trump as president of the United States heralds a seismic change, not only in American politics but across the world.

Here is a sample of how Mr Trump's policies may impact on Ireland when he assumes the presidency from January.

American multinationals based in Ireland

A key plank of Irish economic policy for decades has been using a low tax, business friendly climate and suitable workforce to lure US multinationals here to provide employment and tax revenue for the State.

In a turn back to protectionist policies, Trump majored in his campaign on ensuring that American companies bring jobs back home. He has proposed big tax cuts for companies like Apple that keep billions of profits offshore from the US.

His economic plans called for a reduction in US corporation tax rates from 35 per cent to 15 per cent, very close to the Irish rate of 12.5 per cent. Such moves could have an effect on multinationals here.

The EU-USA Trade Deal

The Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP), a series of trade deals between the European Union and the US, was already in difficulty, with doubt being cast by some even in the German government that it could be completed.

Trump’s election means that TTIP is effectively dead, given his anti-free trade stance. TTIP would have been the biggest regional trade deal in history but Trump is certain to sink it.

The same fate awaits the Trans-Pacific Partnership, unless Barack Obama pushes it through as a lame duck president.

It is possible that a post Brexit Britain could find Trump’s America a more welcoming place when it comes to trade deals.

Republican leaders have said they would be open to Brexit Britain, in contrast to Obama’s pre-referendum comment that the UK would be at the “back of the queue” when it came to negotiating free trade deals.

Trump consistently cited Brexit as a shock result he would emulate and even shared a stage with Nigel Farage.

Brexit Britain, it seems, will have an ally in Trump - which will strengthen Theresa May’s hand as she leaves the EU.

Addressing the undocumented Irish in America and J1 visas

Successive Irish taoisigh have consistently raised the issue of the undocumented Irish in America during the St Patrick's Day trip to the White House and Capitol Hill. Ireland has also long favoured comprehensive immigration reform in the US but Trump's promise to reduce the numbers coming into the country, and even deport illegal immigrants, means that is now further away than ever.

Uncertainty now hangs over the undocumented Irish in America.

Mr Trump has also promised to abolish the J1 visa programme used by thousands of Irish students in the past.

Irish access in Washington

The annual visit by the Taoiseach to the White House can be taken for granted, but it shouldn’t. The level of access granted to Ireland every year - with doors opening on Capitol Hill, too - is the envy of many other small nations.

Yet our leading politicians, from Enda Kenny down, queued up to criticise Trump's conduct during the campaign and he is not a man to take criticism easily.

Irish politicians are all closer to the Democrats and one of the leading Irish-American Republicans, Paul Ryan, the speaker of the House of Representatives, looks set to lose his job after clashing with Trump during the campaign.

Trump does, however, have a golf course in Doonbeg, Co Clare, and Minister for Finance Michael Noonan rolled out the red carpet for him at Shannon Airport a number of years ago. Vice president elect Mike Pence claims Irish ancestry.

Security in Europe

Trump has praised Russian president Vladimir Putin and, earlier this summer, was ambivalent about guaranteeing the security of NATO members in eastern Europe in the event of a Russian attack.

He had said he would see if such countries had “fulfilled their obligation to us” before coming to their defence, emphasising their financial contributions to the security alliance.

It is a position Trump had expressed before he even ran for president but, during the debates with Hillary Clinton, he then said he was "all for NATO".

It is unlikely, however, to assuage the concerns of eastern European members of the European Union and could lead to increased calls for EU wide co-operation on security to face Russian aggression, which would again raise the thorny issue of Irish neutrality.