Fine Gael waiting to see if Fianna Fáil is serious or just tactical

“The music has started, but nobody wants to dance yet,” was the verdict of one senior Fine Gael figure on the process of government formation that has been stuttering into life over the past 10 days and will continue this week in a quiet Leinster House.

All sides say the process will eventually move to a more decisive phase; all agree that it’s not there yet.

Everyone says a government will be formed eventually, but they do not know who will do it, or how.

Ultimately, it seems inevitable Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael will have to talk to one another – if not about a grand coalition, then about the conditions under which a minority government led by either party would function.

Neither side – especially Fianna Fáil – is ready for that stage yet.

But politics, like nature, abhors a vacuum. And so a process of talks between both parties and the Independents and smaller parties will recommence in Leinster House today to explore common policy positions, to build relationships, and – frankly – to give people something to do, and something to talk about.

But even those who are engaged in the process know it is unlikely to be decisive, one way or another.

One Fine Gael Minister insists he and his colleagues are trying to win votes for Enda Kenny to be elected Taoiseach and the more common ground his party can establish with Independents and small parties, the greater the chance that Kenny can put together a minority administration.

But equally, he acknowledges Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael will have to strike some agreement if a minority administration is feasible. Jobs Minister Richard Bruton acknowledged the same thing on Monday.

Crucially, the Dáil numbers say the same thing.

Coalition formation is a process whose parameters are defined in the first instance by the numbers.

Fianna Fáil’s 43 votes (44 minus Ceann Comhairle Seán Ó Feargháil) and Fine Gael’s 51 votes (50 plus Michael Lowry) are so far away from a bare Dáil majority of 79 that, even if this week’s talks with Independents and small parties were to deliver all the votes around the table for either Micheal Martin or Enda Kenny, the two men would still need to talk to one another.

One Independent TD who is not part of the talks summed up this mathematical fact succinctly when asked about his fellow Independents’ contacts with the two big parties: “Sure there’s not enough of them.”

All of this means the talks in Leinster House this week take place in a somewhat unreal atmosphere. The big parties have so far been solicitous, but noncommittal. That will probably continue.

“I thought that at this stage we would be down to concrete things – we need this done in six months, and that legislation passed, and so on. But we’re nowhere near that,” says one Independent participant. “The lack of a sense of urgency from both parties is striking.”

Another participant says the engagement on policy issues with the Fine Gael representatives has been very good. “But I don’t think they’re really trying to get our votes on April 6th.”

That process is unlikely to happen until after the Dáil meets on April 6th, and fails once again to elect a Taoiseach, as all sides expect.

The process will then enter a new and — perhaps more urgent – phase.

At that stage, Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael will probably have to be a bit clearer on their intentions.

Right now Fine Gael is waiting to see if Fianna Fáil is serious or merely tactical in ruling out a grand coalition. One senior party source summarises the current approach. “Be nice to Fianna Fáil. Let them get this, ‘we won the election’ stuff out of their system. And then we’ll talk to them in a month.”