Fifth of voters more likely to back SF with McDonald as leader

Over a fifth of all voters say they will be more likely to vote for Sinn Féin when Mary Lou McDonald becomes leader of the party, according to the latest Irish Times/Ipsos MRBI poll.

With Gerry Adams’s retirement as leader of Sinn Féin imminent and Ms McDonald the only candidate to replace him, participants in the latest poll were asked if they were more or less likely to vote for the party with her as leader.

The results show that 22 per cent of voters say they would be more likely to vote for the party with Ms McDonald as leader.

Some 12 per cent say they would be less likely to vote for Sinn Féin, while 61 per cent say it will make no difference. Some 4 per cent expressed no opinion.

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Younger voters are more open to Ms McDonald than older voters. Some 27 per cent of those under 34 say they would be more likely to vote for the party under her leadership, while the numbers fall among older voters. Amongst voters aged 50-64, it is just 17 per cent; amongst the over 65s it is 19 per cent.

Just like her party at present, Ms McDonald has a greater appeal amongst lower-income voters, with 26 per cent of those on lower incomes saying they are more likely to vote for the party with her as leader. That number falls to 20 per cent for the wealthiest voters.

Impact

However, given Sinn Féin’s poor support amongst this group – this week’s poll put the party at just 6 per cent with better-off voters – this figure suggests it is possible for Ms McDonald to make an impact amongst a part of the electorate where Sinn Féin is currently struggling.

Among the voters of other parties, Ms McDonald is most attractive to Independent and small-party voters. Just 12 per cent of Fine Gael voters and 13 per cent of Fianna Fáil voters say she might make a difference, but the number rises to 26 per cent amongst Independent/others voters.

In many constituencies it is precisely these Independent and small-party voters that Sinn Féin candidates will be targeting in its bids for seat gains.

Taken together, the results indicate Ms McDonald will have an opportunity with some voters to broaden the appeal of the party.

Steady

The party has been steady at 19 per cent in the last three Irish Times/Ipsos MRBI opinion polls, but party sources hope that the departure of Adams – a figure who reminds many voters of the IRA's long and unpopular campaign of violence – and the accession of Ms McDonald to the role of party president will enable the party to reach out to voters who previously dismissed it. Today's poll suggests that opportunity exists.

The poll was conducted on Monday and Tuesday of this week among a representative sample of 1,200 voters aged 18 and over in face-to-face interviews at 120 sampling points in all constituencies.

The margin of error is plus or minus 2.8 per cent.