The next leader of Fine Gael is now expected to be in place in the first week of June, with the contest to succeed Taoiseach Enda Kenny anticipated to begin next week.
Mr Kenny last night told the Fine Gael parliamentary party meeting he will address the issue of his leadership next week, which was understood by most of those present to mean the leadership contest will begin then.
Mr Kenny said he saw the “speculation in the papers” on the leadership issue and wanted to make sure the “texters” in the parliamentary party room understood his position correctly.
This was taken as a pointed criticism of those who leak the discussions of Fine Gael parliamentary party meetings to the media.
Speaking after the meeting, one TD said there was a “definite sense” that Mr Kenny’s comments were an indication he would stand down next week.
Timeframe
A Cabinet Minister also said: “It will kick off for real next week.” Those close to Mr Kenny did not want to put a specific timeframe on his departure.
“I wouldn’t be making predictions like that,” the source said. “I don’t think anybody said they’d be stepping down next week.”
A statement from Fine Gael party chair Martin Heydon afterwards said that Mr Kenny “said he will address the party next Wednesday in respect of the leadership. He said all party colleagues will be clear where he stands then.”
The contest to succeed Mr Kenny will run for roughly three weeks. If he announces next Wednesday, May 17th, there will be three days for contenders to gather the required eight signatures to enter the contest.
On such a timeframe, the deadline for nominations will close on Saturday, May 20th. The following weekend will see four party hustings take place around the country, likely to be in Dublin, Cork, the midlands and the west between Friday, May 26th, and Monday the 29th.
There is speculation in the party that a prominent journalist, such as RTÉ's former political correspondent David Davin Power, could chair the hustings.
Voting for members and councillors will take place the following weekend, the June bank holiday weekend, between Friday June 2nd and Monday June 5th.
Electoral college
The Fine Gael leadership will be decided by an electoral college which gives the parliamentary party – TDs, Senators and MEPs – 65 per cent of the vote. Rank and file members are allocated 25 per cent and councillors 10 per cent.
The key meeting of the parliamentary party to vote for the next leader is now expected to take place on the morning of Tuesday, June 6th. The count will take place that afternoon, with the result announced that evening. The Dáil is not sitting that week.
It is likely, however, that the Dáil will not approve the new leader as taoiseach until he or she has renewed Fine Gael’s Government commitments with the Independents and Fianna Fáil.
The two leading contenders – Minister for Social Protection Leo Varadkar and Minister for Housing Simon Coveney – have substantially stepped up their canvassing in recent weeks.
Tánaiste Frances Fitzgerald and Minister for Education Richard Bruton are still considering standing.
Meanwhile the Taoiseach is due to go to the United States with Enterprise Ireland next month, but uncertainty surrounds whether it will be Mr Kenny who will travel on the trip from June 4th to 9th. Mr Kenny’s spokesman said last week no further trips were planned or prepared for him after the Canada visit, which took place recently.
