We begin another Dáil week speculating about the future of our great leader Enda Kenny.
The Taoiseach has yet to reveal when he intends to depart as leader of Fine Gael. His every move will continue to be analysed, his words scrutinised and his demeanour questioned.
The truth is nobody has a clue when he will leave. All we know is that it is impending, but we have known that since February.
Kenny has two overwhelming characteristics. The first is that he is stubborn and will refuse to be pushed by some unruly Fine Gael backbenchers. He certainly will not let the media dictate his departure.
Second, he is also an incredibly proud man. Kenny wants to save face. He wants to leave when it suits him, but he also knows that events can get in the way.
Finding a happy medium between these two characteristics is a very difficult task. This life-long politician knows that something may come around the corner that may force him from his position, and that is a risk he will not want to take.
I cannot guarantee much about this Fine Gael leadership election, but I can be fairly confident that Kenny will take us all by surprise.
The timing of his departure seems irrelevant to the two men fighting for his position. The canvassing and campaigning is already under way.
Those in the camp of Minister for Social Protection Leo Varadkar will tell you he will win comfortably. The vote of a TD is four times more effective than that of a councillor or a member, they say, assuring you Varadkar also has a significant portion of the parliamentary party in the bag.
Then those in Coveney’s camp are playing their cards a little closer to their chests. But they will insist this is a much closer contest. Coveney has the councillors, they will tell you, and the Senators.
The campaign is under way even if Kenny refuses to accept it.
