One healthy feature of Irish democracy is that election outcomes are not always predictable and can push parties and others outside their normal comfort zones.
This creates opportunities for institutional change that will enhance broader participation in decision-making, involving everyone who has been elected, backbenchers as well as Independents. No party, individual or political group possesses a monopoly of wisdom and all have blind spots, which can be mitigated by partnership, negotiation and compromise.
Since 1922, every government has been led by Fine Gael (previously Cumann na nGaedheal) or Fianna Fáil. They have long been partners in democracy, but not in government. As the two largest parties to emerge in this election, both have a responsibility to see that a new government is formed with the potential to last. The three elections held in 1981-2 in 18 months are not a precedent to follow, if we want the confidence and stability that will underpin broader and more inclusive progress in an unsettled international environment. There is also a responsibility not to leave the field wide open to forces that still adhere to hard-left ideologies and tactics.
In an unfamiliar landscape, parties should allow the post-election atmosphere to cool. While the members of the 32nd Dáil explore the basis for forming a government, the present Government will remain in an acting capacity, if the Dáil is not able to reach an immediate decision on March 10th. Prolonged indecision would not be healthy either, where active policy initiatives are needed on many fronts.
Under cloud
A
feature of elections since 1989 in the era of permanent coalition has been the tendency of all parties under media pressure to rule out most options in advance, leaving little room for manoeuvre. The way our system operates surely means such certainty should be avoided so new governments do not start under a cloud. It should be possible to express a commitment to a partner in coalition, if the number of seats won permits, without categorically excluding others, unless there are compelling reasons for doing so.
Despite what was said, while many FF and FG voters would be strongly against any grand coalition or other arrangement, others would have been well aware of the possibility, going into the polling booth, and been open to such an idea.
It is difficult to argue that the electorate has given any party or group a mandate to govern. In practice, the next government, more than just formally, will receive its direct mandate from the Dáil. While a policy mandate can be derived from the overall outcome and with guidance from manifestos, the next government will not feel morally obliged to keep party promises not in the public interest. For example, if Fine Gael leads the next government, it has no mandate to abolish USC.
It is unclear what the composition of the next government will be, or its support base in the Dáil. History and particularly precedents since 1981 provide a variety of models (without having to re-watch Borgen!).
In 1927, after Fianna Fáil was forced to take its seats in the Dáil after the assassination of Kevin O'Higgins, an early opportunity arose to replace the Cosgrave government with one led by Labour and the (Redmondite) National League. Fianna Fáil agreed to support this from outside on the basis of unspecified arrangements, even though it had more seats than either party. This did not come to pass, because John Jinks from Sligo was led astray before the vote, as legend would have it, by Bertie Smyllie, future editor of The Irish Times.
In 1932, Fianna Fáil came to power initially with the support of the Labour Party.
The best example of party support outside government was between 1987 and 1989, when Fine Gael under Alan Dukes gave conditional support to the last single-party minority Fianna Fáil government under Charles Haughey based on broad understandings about implementation of the Anglo-Irish Agreement, fiscal redressment, and acceptance of some Fine Gael initiatives, like Alan Shatter's judicial separation Bill. Dukes was a regular visitor to Government Buildings, and it can be taken the Government had to adapt regularly to signalled Fine Gael requirements.
By far the most diverse government was the Interparty Coalition of 1948-51, where four parties, Labour, National Labour, Clann na Talmhan and Clann na Poblachta joined Fine Gael to provide an alternative to Fianna Fáil after 16 years. It was led by John A Costello rather than the Fine Gael leader, Richard Mulcahy, for Civil War reasons.
Acute neglect
In the 1960s, when the Lemass governments needed the support of a couple of Independents, it was a low-profile arrangement. In sharp contrast, the Gregory deal – to address acute neglect in Dublin’s north inner city – the price of his support for Charles Haughey in 1982, was read to some shock into the Dáil record.
The Independent TDs who supported Bertie Ahern’s administration in 1997 kept their written agreements more private, and liaised with the taoiseach’s office. Today’s Independents are demanding. The main objection to a government requiring their support would be fear of long shopping-lists as well as brinkmanship.
When it comes to coalition arrangements, there was some difference according to whether it was between a large party and a very small one or between a large and a medium-sized party. In the first case, the programme of the larger party stayed in place, with some modifications or add-ons. In the latter case, the party programmes had to be integrated with some discards, and the Fianna Fáil-Labour coalition was styled a partnership government.
It is fairly clear that there will now need to be a written agreement on how the Dáil will be run in a way that allows a serious input from all as well as a practical programme for government. If baggage needs to be dumped, now is the time to do it.
