Election 2020: Fine Gael faces uphill climb to return to power

Good morning.

The general election campaign has been under way for a week now, and observation of its daily events - as well as the measurement of public opinion contained in our Ipsos MRBI opinion poll - lead to only one conclusion: it is not going well for Fine Gael. This morning’s newspaper headlines bear this out.

The final instalment of the poll findings - in this morning’s print and e-paper editions and released online last night - show the extent of the mood for change in the country. An overwhelming majority of voters - 75 per cent - say they are in favour of change. This is the hill Fine Gael must climb if it is to return to government. It’s a steep one.

Steep, but not insurmountable. No Irish election campaign is over with two-and-a-half weeks to go. As the prospect of their participation in government firms up, Opposition parties - especially Fianna Fáil, who propose to lead the next administration - will be subject to a harsher degree of scrutiny. There are a few phases, and a few plays, yet to come in this campaign. But there is no doubt that Leo Varadkar is up against it.

Fianna Fáil may have just pressed the pause button on the property market

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Social Democrats to ‘radically scale up’ number of new homes

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Fianna Fáil candidate served as director despite court order

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Irish Times poll: Large majority want change of government

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Our story on the poll, which is the lead in this morning's editions is here. Damian Loscher, managing director of Ipsos MRBI, gives his analysis, and my oped on the state of the race, and the likely course of the coming weeks, is here.

But there is a lot more going on in the campaign than just the opinion poll. Sinn Féin - buoyed by the poll findings, and justifiably so - held a launch of its candidates in the Mansion House yesterday where Mary Lou McDonald, channelling Phil Hogan's (very successful 2011 appeal to Fianna Fail voters), appealed to voters to "give us a chance".

She also reprised her demands to be allowed participate in the leaders' debates scheduled to involve just Micheál Martin and Leo Varadkar, although as Fiach Kelly points out in his analysis piece McDonald is not running enough candidates to make a viable bid to become Taoiseach in the next Dáil.

The row over pensions for those people caught between a rising age for the State pension and compulsory retirement at 65 from their jobs continued to bubble away, with politicians in all parties on the run from the committed and vocal grey vote. One of the stories of the day came from our deputy finance editor, Dominic Coyle, who revealed the anomaly only affected those in the private sector, thanks to a quiet adjustment made for public sector workers in 2014.

Last night social welfare Minister Regina Doherty announced Fine Gael would stump up for pensions for those caught by the increase in the pension age.

Giveaway pledges continued with a promise by the Taoiseach to make up any shortfall in farmers' incomes after reform of the common agricultural policy.

Long-term spending commitments are being made on the hoof. You can expect plenty more to follow. There is a danger that this election will turn into a massive auction.

Best reads

Miriam, with the Greens, on the beach.

Kathy Sheridan on election debates.

Eoin Burke-Kennedy on Fianna Fáil's SSIA-type pledge.

Michael McDowell gives his assessment on the state of the race.

Election diary

Nominations close at noon today: if you’re thinking of running, it’s decision time. Luckily the Taoiseach will be on hand to show you how it’s done at the office of the Dublin County Returning Officer at 10am. And those who want to register to vote must also have done so by close of business today.

The Taoiseach’s colleagues Simon Coveney and Michael Ring will be backing rural Ireland in Golden Co Tipperary.

Eamon Ryan is canvassing in Ashbourne.

People Before Profit is launching its manifesto at 11am.

Fianna Fáil is unveiling its personal taxation proposals in Dublin this morning.

Sinn Féin will also launch proposals on insurance and pensions.

For Labour, Jan O’Sullivan will announce a new policy on renters.

All, you can be sure, will leave you better off.

It’s not just the political parties who are out this morning. The Wheel – the national association of charities, community and voluntary organisations, and social enterprises – is also launching its election manifesto.

Elsewhere, One Future, a coalition of faith-based groups and social activists, will highlight climate as a central priority for the electorate ahead of the general election at 9am on Sandymount Strand – “at high tide, with the sun low in the sky over Dun Laoghaire”, they say. Unfortunately for them, according to this morning’s poll, the electorate is only mildly bothered about climate change. Still, it sounds like a nice scene.

And last, but not least, the first leaders’ debate between Leo Varadkar and Micheál Martin takes place tonight on Virgin Media One at 9.30pm.

Election coverage

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