Donnelly’s mention of possible national lockdown puzzles colleagues

When comparing Minister for Health Stephen Donnelly to his predecessor, Simon Harris, his defenders say one key point must be acknowledged: it is easier to close things down than to open them up.

Locking down a terrified population is less complex than peeling back individual restrictions on a society that is weary and yearning for respite.

Objectively, this is the case.

Nonetheless, how Donnelly handles this task will be the litmus test for a politician who divides opinion, even within his own party.

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At the Oireachtas Covid-19 committee meeting last week, he argued that the current strategy is to use localised lockdown measures, but eyebrows were raised when – on three separate occasions – he invoked the prospect of returning to a national lockdown.

One senior Government source says they “nearly fell out the window” when his comments were reported.

"The amount of people onto me going ballistic about it," a Fianna Fáil Minister of State said.

A Cabinet colleague of Donnelly’s described it as “odd...returning to a national lockdown was not my sense of the policy direction or options likely to be considered”.

‘Harmful’ message

Another Fianna Fáil Minister complained that as the country prepared to send its children back to school, a message of looming lockdown was harmful. “When it needs to be said, it should be said, but he shouldn’t be musing out loud.”

Some political sources speculated that his warnings of a broader lockdown were being pushed by the National Public Health Emergency Team (NPHET). The theory goes that Donnelly is a technocrat, and he is comfortable being led by an essentially technocratic body like NPHET.

“He seems to be an extension of NPHET rather than a member of Government,” said one source.

Indeed, NPHET did warn on August 17th that while lockdown measures in place until September 13th may arrest the current trajectory of the virus, it was “not possible to provide assurance that stricter measures will not be required”.

While health and political sources acknowledged last week that were the virus to rage completely out of control, a national lockdown would be considered, NPHET sources said it was not currently pushing for a national lockdown, with one saying it was “not on the agenda”.

On Thursday, Dr Ronan Glynn, the acting chief medical officer, said "we're not contemplating a national lockdown as things currently stand", which is in marked contrast to Donnelly's assertion on Wednesday that "we are dealing with a virus that is close to having us lock down the country again".

Some wondered last week whether Donnelly’s rhetoric was calibrated to encourage compliance with public health measures. “If it’s a tactic to get people to cop on, there’s other ways to do that,” said a Fianna Fáil Minister.

The lockdown comments came during a committee appearance which was generally seen as otherwise solid, if unspectacular.

There was little detail on the winter plan for the health service, which Donnelly has asked to be delivered early. The plan, always contentious, will become a logistical and political minefield due to Covid-era demands.

Tricky week

It followed a tricky week for Donnelly which saw him ridiculed for comparing risks from Covid-19 to trampolining and car journeys; become embroiled in a confusing debacle over numbers permitted at concerts; and face a backlash after his media adviser attempted to curtail questioning on the Clifden golf dinner during a press conference.

But his qualities are not unappreciated in his own party, and neither is there a rush to judge someone in situ just two months.

One TD described him as “data and logic driven” and a “breath of fresh air compared to some of the ‘seat of the pants’ guys of old in the party”. Another said he could be a “fantastic reformer”, given the chance.

However, there is a lingering sense that he may lack a natural feel for the task at hand.

“The view is he’s nerdy; he’s not got the common touch,” opines one Fianna Fáil source. “He’s able to talk the talk – but walking the walk is entirely different.”