Differences over pandemic strategy go to the heart of Government

It was always clear that the reopening of the country would be a more fraught and complex process than the abrupt shutdown announced in March.

That is proving to be an understatement. The new Government is struggling to find and articulate a plan for getting children back to school and reopening the economy, while controlling the resurgence of the virus. Claims of unclear messaging and uncertain leadership come from the very heart of Government.

“So older people can go on holidays, says the Taoiseach, but they shouldn’t go to hotels, says the chief medical officer,” complains one high ranking Government source after watching yesterday’s press conference from Government Buildings. “This is incoherent.”

Both Taoiseach Micheál Martin and Minister for Health Stephen Donnelly yesterday promised to have, in the coming weeks, a new plan for the management of the virus for the next six to nine months. In the meantime they move hesitantly towards the reopening of the schools less than a fortnight’s time, at the same time warning that the country faces a threat from the virus as great as when the lockdown was first introduced.

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All the while, the public gets increasingly restive – some resentful of those flouting the lockdown; others fed up of it and wondering why Ireland’s lockdown is one of the most stringent in Europe despite relative success in containing the virus over the summer. A further cohort is desperate to get their businesses open again; another is waiting impatiently to get their children back to school.

Fraying consensus

This fraying of the social consensus behind the efforts to control the spread of the coronavirus – increasingly evident in recent days and weeks – reached politics some time ago. There was evidence of it again yesterday, when Labour leader Alan Kelly and Sinn Féin TD Louise O’Reilly were sharply critical of aspects of the measures announced.

Kelly wondered at the logic of putting all sports events behind closed doors when crowds were rigorously socially distanced, with entry to events tightly controlled by sports organisations. O’Reilly complained there were no measures to deal specifically with meat plants, the source of much of the recent spike in infections.

Some Government sources found it hard to disagree with their criticisms last night. They will be heard more loudly and clearly when the Dáil returns. Coronavirus and the Government's management of it is becoming more and more a political issue.

But what was perhaps more significant about yesterday’s events was that it became clear the fraying of the consensus had reached the Cabinet room. There was criticism from several Ministers about the growing tendency to mixed messages from Government, according to a number of people who were in the room. There was fierce private criticism afterwards.

Divergence

There are also serious differences on the best way forward: should the ultra-cautious approach advocated by the public health experts prevail, or must the Government continue with the reopening of the economy to sustain a country that must learn to live with the virus? One health source says the fears of public health experts about exponential growth in the virus over the coming weeks are much more intense and worrying in private than they are in public.

The Cabinet meeting also brought into the open divisions between Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael, not just on the management of Covid-19 but on the management of Government itself. Tánaiste Leo Varadkar was angry that a planned meeting of the Cabinet subcommittee on the virus was replaced by a full Cabinet meeting at short notice. Varadkar believed the committee meeting was where the detailed discussion on the measures proposed by the National Public Health Emergency Team should have taken place; instead the memo proposing the measures was torn apart and put back together again in testy exchanges that a Fianna Fáil Minister conceded were difficult.

Varadkar said it was no way to do business. Martin said it was a misunderstanding between officials. Several sources – including some in Fine Gael – wonder why Varadkar was making a fuss. Wherever fault lies, the public airing of differences is a sign that all is not well at the centre of Government, even as it faces what may be its defining challenge in the coming weeks. As one Minister grimaced: “This was not a good day.”