Covid-19: Talk in Government turns to lockdown-exit plan for Christmas

Good morning.

It may have gone unnoticed between the constitutional crisis and the motion of confidence in the Tánaiste (another slow news week, natch), but we are more than half way through the second national lockdown.

It is safe to say we haven’t seen the same level of fierce debate this time around about the rights and wrongs of harsh restrictions.

Most people have bunkered down, fending off the stress or monotony in the hope that December will be a better month.

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There are ongoing discussions behind the scenes in Government Buildings about Ireland’s plan for exiting lockdown, and part of this, of course, involves looking at Christmas.

Just like St Patrick’s Day was one like we have never seen before, and the same for Halloween, socialising at Christmas will be different.

As we detail in this story, senior officials are examining modified plans for social restrictions in December that will likely see people asked to keep their contacts to family members as much as possible.

The thinking behind this is obvious: to keep the level of the disease as low as possible in what is usually a hectic, social period.

Government figures are also concerned Christmas family gatherings traditionally involve all generations and that too much mingling will put older people at a heightened risk.

On the other hand, there is intense pressure from business and other sectors of the economy. In Dublin, pubs that do not serve food have been closed since mid-March. Restaurants had to pivot to outdoor arrangements before those too were abandoned.

Hotels are hoping that when we emerge into the fresh new dawn that beckons on Tuesday, December 1st, it will be into a world of Level 2 restrictions. This would mean people could move around outside of their counties – something that would not be possible at the next level up.

Senior officials in Merrion Street are cautiously optimistic about emerging into the lower range of restrictions, but they talk of a “final squeeze” in these next three weeks to get the number of cases down and to suppress the reproduction “r” number.

For his part, Taoiseach Micheál Martin told the Dáil yesterday Government is analysing the data and might look at certain sectors to see if it could “moderate” Level 3. But within hours he was coming under pressure from his own TDs in the weekly parliamentary party meeting to ensure the lowest level of restrictions.

Expect to see this conversation move from behind-the-scenes strategising to the floor of the Dáil in the coming days and weeks.

In fact, a motion was passed at the Fine Gael parliamentary party meeting last night for a Dáil debate to be held as soon as possible to thrash out how the country should exit Level 5. Party members appear to be keen to see a wider debate on the next stage of pandemic management.

Jack Horgan-Jones has a full report on the party meetings here.

Parties move cautiously over Supreme Court controversy

And speaking of parliamentary party meetings, many political observers were watching last night to see what TDs and Senators inside Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil would say about Supreme Court judge Séamus Woulfe.

The answer is not much at all. Tánaiste Leo Varadkar warned his party members to avoid commenting on the controversy. But it is not going away. A meeting between the Taoiseach and Opposition leaders will take place tomorrow afternoon. It is thought Mr Martin may share legal advice on issues surrounding an impeachment process under Article 35 of the Constitution.

All sides, whether Government or Opposition, are moving slowly and with extreme caution. These are uncharted waters after all.

As Pat Leahy reports here, the leaders of the three Coalition parties are expected to meet Attorney General Paul Gallagher this morning or tomorrow morning to discuss the issue and consider any proposal that could be made to that all-party meeting.

While we wait to see how this one pans out, here is an Inside Politics podcast (complete with actors) that is an excellent primer for those who want the full story. Grab a cup of tea for this one.

Best reads

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One in five who undergo rapid Covid testing could be incorrectly told they have the virus, writes Mark Hilliard.

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Talks will resume on Thursday between Northern Ireland's ministers after they again failed to reach agreement over whether or not to extend the current coronavirus restrictions, writes Freya McClements.

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Playbook

Dáil

Minister for Transport Eamon Ryan is up first, taking questions on his brief at 10.30am. This will be followed by Leaders’ Questions at noon and then questions on promised legislation. A new Brexit omnibus Bill is also up this afternoon. In the evening there will be topical issues and a Sinn Féin Bill to regulate private security firms.

Read the full schedule here.

Seanad

There is no business in the Seanad today.

Committees

It will be a busy day in the committee rooms with ten hearings scheduled including the PAC, a look at the aviation sector in Ireland in the transport committee and a meeting of the Good Friday Agreement implementation committee. Here is the schedule.