Covid-19: A new model for pandemic policy emerges

Good morning - with a bruising January receding in the rear-view mirror, the pandemic sands are shifting, ever-so gradually, under our feet. By painful increments, a new paradigm for pandemic policy is emerging, ushered in by new variants, the promise of vaccination, sobering death tolls and a month that pushed the hospital system right to an edge it is only now slowly stepping away from.

Gone is the Government opposition to onerous travel restrictions (although the speed of enforcing new rules may yet become a millstone for the Coalition).

Likewise, the tension between politicians who want us to open up and public health chiefs who want to keep us locked down has been replaced by detente as the State collectively focuses on crushing the curve for a third time

It remains to be seen, however, how long this will last, and whether it will survive contact with lower levels of disease.

GSK, CureVac to develop next-generation Covid-19 vaccines

---

Construction shutdown will lead to housing shortage lasting years, builders say

---

Ireland in line to get 4.47m Covid-19 vaccine doses by end of June

---

Trusting ‘careful’ friends, and other everyday Covid mistakes we’re all still making

---

Meanwhile, the grinding reality of daily life under lockdown continues to be mixed with the tragic reality of Covid – with a 19-year-old among those record 101 deaths yesterday linked to the virus.

The vaccine rollout has become the main centre of political gravity, with local skirmishes in Dublin and a raging battle between drug makers and the European Union.

Our lead story this morning covers new vaccine developments at both European and local level. Brussels Correspondent Naomi O’Leary writes that almost half the population could be in line to receive a Covid-19 vaccine by the end of June, according to a new European delivery schedule outlined at behind-closed-doors meetings on Tuesday. Naomi reports that under the plan, Ireland would be in line to receive around 4.47 million doses by the end of June – enough to cover half the population.

Closer to home, clarity is awaited over the role to be played by AstraZeneca’s Covid-19 jab. The National Immunisation Advisory Committee (NIAC) wrote to the CMO on Monday, but the exact impact of its advice is still unclear, despite ongoing discussions through Tuesday.

We understand the NIAC advice is that although the AstraZeneca jab is safe and effective for older people, mRNA-based vaccines like Moderna and Pfizer should be given in the first instance, when it’s practical and timely, with AstraZeneca given when they are not available. This comes against a backdrop of several European countries limiting the use of the AstraZeneca jab in older people.

Meanwhile, the Government is in a race against time to live up to its promises on the introduction of mandatory hotel quarantine. Pat Leahy reports Ministers were told yesterday that legislation must be passed through the Oireachtas before travellers can be required by law to spend 14 days in a hotel. The timeline led to some blowback at Cabinet yesterday, with Tánaiste Leo Varadkar understood to have raised concerns about the number of passengers that are still coming through Dublin airport. All this is covered off in the lead.

Elsewhere, Freya McClements and Naomi O’Leary report on how the European Union and the United Kingdom are to hold talks today with the North’s First and Deputy First Ministers to discuss security concerns that halted some checks at Belfast and Larne yesterday.

Despite the PSNI playing down the involvement of loyalist paramilitaries in threats made against port staff, the mix of Northern politics and Brexit – with a dash of vaccine conflict thrown in – continues to prove to be a combustible one.

Their report is here.

Freya has an in-depth look at DUP warnings on cross-Border activity here.

The final story on the front page details calls from western powers for Russia to immediately release opposition leader Alexei Navalny, who was sentenced to a 3½-year jail term yesterday after returning to the country.

Daniel McLaughlin's report is here.

Best reads

The saga over Leaving Cert 2021 continues to rumble on. Read education editor Carl O'Brien's coverage here.

And he speaks to Leaving Cert students on an anticlimactic and strange results day.

Cliff Taylor has been swotting up and crunching the numbers on vaccines. Here's his best guess on when different groups will be vaccinated.

Paul Cullen examines whether Covid case numbers are plateauing – and if they are, what can be done about it?

Derek Scally examines the sober reinvention of Berlin's most notorious fetish and sex club as a Covid testing centre.

Kathy Sheridan talks protest and political violence, asking if we are really too deferential to government?

Meanwhile, the fallout from the Article 16 controversy continues to play out across out pages, with analysis from Naomi O'Leary.

And a lashing for the EU from Michael McDowell.

Playbook

Business in the lower house kicks off with a Sinn Féin motion on household utility bill supports at 10am, before Leaders’ Questions from Sinn Féin, the Social Democrats, Solidarity-People Before Profit and the Regional Group.

At lunchtime it’s onto Government business, which will be given over to motions on deferred surrender to the central fund, the reappointment of the ombudsman for children, the extension of the rates of the Employment Wage Subsidy Scheme and then the second stage of the Criminal Justice (Theft and Fraud Offences) (Amendment) Bill. The Dáil is scheduled to adjourn at 6pm.

Due to Covid-19 restrictions, the Seanad has no business on Wednesday, while all committee meetings are being held virtually and behind closed doors.