Coalition adopts ‘wait-and-see’ approach to latest Covid wave

"Wait and see." That's how a number of senior sources summarised the approach of the Government to the current wave of Covid infections. As speculation flitters around health and political circles about potential further restrictions – with pre-Christmas lockdown mooted in some circles – that possibility will not be considered until at least next week, it is understood.

People involved in the decision-making process say that after the shock of last week, when the seriousness of the fourth wave caught many people in Government – and everywhere else – by surprise, it will be another week before they can judge if the measures introduced last week have taken an effect.

Encouragingly, sources say, the Department of Health's published weekly public opinion research shows that there has been an explosion of concern about Covid

Earlier on Tuesday Chief Medical Officer Dr Tony Holohan indicated to Opposition spokespeople that he and his colleagues on the National Public Health Emergency Team (Nphet) would not be recommending any further restrictions this week. Next week's Nphet meeting is not scheduled until Thursday, so it will miss next week's Cabinet too, which takes place on Tuesday. Unless emergency action is taken, that moves things into December. On his way into Cabinet this morning the Green leader Eamon Ryan told reporters that normally they would wait two or three weeks before seeing if restrictions had an effect.

This is a change from last week, when there was hardly anyone around Government Buildings on the night of the restrictions announcements who didn’t think that we would be back for more this week. While Ministers are receiving daily reports of the grim situation on the ground in hospitals, the feeling among many people in and around Government is that they are, as yet, some distance away from further restrictions. “Maybe time to hold the nerve a little bit,” says one insider.

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Officials are tentatively looking at small drops in the daily cases numbers, in the seven-day rate, at hospital discharges and wondering if they might avoid the worst of it. Encouragingly, sources say, the Department of Health’s published weekly public opinion research shows that there has been an explosion of concern about Covid, with the numbers favouring more restrictions passing out those who are not in favour a fortnight ago for the first time since February of this year. Right at the same time, the proportion of people believing the return to normal is happening too quickly passed out those who think it is happening “at the right pace”.

The situation in many hospitals remains grim, and there are large numbers of people infected in recent weeks who will end up needing hospital care in the coming weeks

At each stage of the pandemic this is what has happened in advance of a change in behaviour, which subsequently suppressed the rise in infections. But this time, it may be happening without lockdown. So far, anyway. We’ll see.

Remarkably, the Cabinet didn't discuss Covid at its weekly meeting. This is for two reasons: firstly, because the memo on subsidising antigen tests wasn't ready, despite being in preparation for almost a week in the Department of Health; and secondly, the Cabinet is not the most important forum for decision-making, but rather it tends to confirm decisions made by the party leaders and at the Covid Cabinet subcommittee. Depending on your view of these things, that is either unconstitutional, or simply the way decision-making has evolved in recent coalition governments. Either way, the fact that Ministers didn't discuss the issue today bespeaks a definite easing of the acute fear which gripped many in Government last week.

This drop in anxiety levels may turn out to be entirely misplaced. The situation in many hospitals remains grim, and there are large numbers of people infected in recent weeks who will end up needing hospital care in the coming weeks. The people who are infected today, one senior health figure said, “Some of them will be in ICU on Christmas Day.” There’s a long way to go yet.