Burton’s election never really in doubt

Joan Burton's election as Labour Party leader was never really in doubt and what was widely predicted duly transpired today.

The one question was the nature of the endorsement and it turned out to be a landslide, with the Dublin West TD getting 2,094 votes out of 2,720, compared to Alex White’s total of 607. In percentage terms she won some 77 per cent of the vote compared to 23 per cent for her rival.

Similarly, the deputy leadership contest also had the look of a foregone conclusion about it. Tipperary North TD and Minister of State Alan Kelly looks like getting over half the vote and being elected on the first count.

It is a significant victory. Ms Burton is the eleventh leader of the party but the first woman. As White acknowledged in his graceful concession speech: “For that reason alone, this is an historic occasion.”

She is not young - indeed at 65 she will soon qualify for free travel - but she has an abundance of energy and will be seen as an agent for change.

Her perception during the Troika period in Ireland was as the most truculent and contrarian of the Labour Ministers and there were tensions with her colleagues, not least with Brendan Howlin.

But Howlin along with Michael Noonan is seen as a linchpin of this government and is staying in situ - his relationship with Burton will be key to the party's progress and prosperity.

As new leader of the Labour Party, Joan Burton will not have the comfort of a honeymoon or a nesting-in period.

It’s too late in the cycle and an election is just over the horizon. At this stage, there is no such thing as a shallow end - and the party is going to have to start swimming fast if it’s not going to sink.

What does a change of leadership imply? Obviously, it involves a new person behind the microphone, to employ Eamon Gilmore’s phrase.

But it’s clear that Burton will also press for a far stronger ‘Labour’ stamp on Government - she and her team will put out all the stops to pull off the feat of a tail wagging a dog.

Fine Gael will be conscious of the licking Labour took in the local and European elections and there will be some degree of sympathy. But then Fine Gael itself didn't perform amazingly and there is pressure on Kenny from his own party not to concede too much to its coalition partners.

Burton’s big message as new leader will be social recovery. In essence it means that economic recovery is not enough, that more is needed.

But how does that translate into policy. Well, for one she will push the idea of a “living wage”, which is higher than minimum wage. She will also try new initiatives on housing, not only on social housing but also to make housing more affordable for lower income families, above the welfare threshold.

But that is a costly item and she may lean on the recent report from the National Economic Social Council for ideas on funding that are off blance sheet.

Another priority will be tax reform (a by-product of which will be cuts). This will meet little resistance from her coalition partners and a compromise shoudl be reached.

And then, of course, there will be the focus on jobs. The most important thing from a Labour perspective will be a Labour Minister for Jobs.

That will mean concessions elsewhere (perhaps relinquishing Eamon Gilmore’s hopes of being a EU commissioner).

And on the European note, she will strongly advocate the approach of Italian prime minister Matteo Renzi who has argued that there should be some degree of flexibility in EU fiscal rules to allow investment in the future.

Those close to her believe that with a recovering economy and a strong adherence to that agenda Labour will be more than in a position to salvage seats in the next general election.