Budget 2020: Minister to unveil plans after weeks of tough talks

It’s budget day!

Good morning and welcome to the budget day Politics Digest.

Today sees the culmination of days and weeks of tough negotiations between Minister for Finance Paschal Donohoe and his Cabinet colleagues over their spending allocations for next year.

That the exchanges and the arguments (there were plenty, some of them rather sparky) were almost completely hidden from public view is because most public and political attention is focused on Brexit, but also because Ministers have learned Donohoe does not respond well to being pressured through the media. Inconvenient for those of us in this business, but there you go.

Extra tax hikes included in Budget 2020 to fund €3.1 billion in spending

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Less money available in budget for new spending, says Fianna Fáil

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Negotiations continued up to yesterday evening, and even some of the biggest-spending departments were in discussions right up to the end. There are a few reasons for this - among them is that Donohoe was holding a very tight rein on spending because of Brexit - and his own naturally cautious instincts. That caution is reinforced by the fear of a no-deal Brexit, but also by his analysis that Fine Gael needs to recover its cherished (by itself, at any rate) reputation for fiscal prudence and economic competence. This is, after all, the last budget before a general election next year, everyone agrees.

But Irish politics has certain realities. One of them is holding down spending growth when the Exchequer is awash with cash is very, very difficult. And it seems the size of the budget-day package again increased late in the day - just as it did in recent years. We shall know more later today, but it turns out we know quite a bit already. Here's our lead story this morning.

Donohoe will brief Ministers this morning, the first time they will get a sense of the overall package. All have been negotiating their own allocations directly with the Department of Finance, and Ministers have been nervous about telling each other whether they have made their settlement. Then the Cabinet will approve the budget, and after some pretty rapid printing and binding, the budget books will be available in time for Donohoe’s Dáil speech at 1pm. Then it’s a long, long day of Dáil debates, press conferences, and high-octane budget windbagging for everyone concerned.

Here's Cliff Taylor's guide to what to look out for, and - in case you missed it, as they say - my column from the weekend about the tests facing Donohoe today. Finally, here's how the day will play out.

Meanwhile, in Brexit

There was a bit of a flutter in Government Buildings last night when the Spectator's political editor, James Forsyth, published a blog post in which he quoted at considerable length a message from a senior source in Downing Street on the British government's assessment of the state of the Brexit negotiations, expectations of and strategy for the future.

There was much displeasure expressed with Leo Varadkar in it and also quite a lot of bullish no-dealery which, to be honest, at times sounded slightly manic. But it is fascinating reading, not least because of the insight into what at least some people in Downing Street think (and the source was widely assumed to be the PM’s chief strategist, Dominic Cummings).

According to the briefing to Forsyth, the UK would view EU countries that failed to support a UK exit on October 31st as having interfered in UK domestic politics in a hostile manner. If it stays in the EU after October 31st, the UK would also dump the idea it should co-operate with the EU on anything.

If this does represent the official UK government position, it is utterly extraordinary. It would certainly lead to a complete rupture in relations between the EU and the UK. You’ll hear more about this today, I expect.

Meanwhile, here's the latest from Denis Staunton.

Best reads

Fintan O'Toole on the fiscal rules that govern the State's finances. He doesn't think much of them.

Suzanne Lynch on President Trump's abandonment of the Kurds.

This is great - a piece from the archives by Vincent Browne on writer Ulick O'Connor, who died yesterday.

If you're into that kind of thing, several Irish restaurants won Michelin stars yesterday.

And if you're into that kind of thing, Fiona Reddan asks if you should really spend your money on private schools.

Playbook

It’s budget, budget, budget all the way. Donohoe’s first photocall is at 12.15pm, and he will be on his feet at 1pm in the chamber. There is traditionally money to be made at the bookies betting on the colour of the Minister’s tie. Our guess? Green.

Opposition speeches begin at 2pm and continue until 9pm (yes, 9!) when there will be a brief adjournment before voting on the financial resolutions that come into force at midnight.

But of course much of the budget action takes place outside Leinster House with lobby groups, industry representatives (“it was a bad budget, Sean. Nothing in for the bouncy castle industry”), NGOs, Opposition politicians and the occasional political correspondent opining and analysing with gusto.

You can follow it all as it happens on irishtimes.com/business/budget where we'll have instant news and analysis, podcasts, Facebook live sessions and goodness knows what else. Do tune in. And whatever you do, make sure to have a totally fruity budget day.