Brexit: Has DUP scuppered the withdrawal deal?

Good morning

It’s make or break day - or at least, it appears that way.

Over the next few hours we are likely to learn if the seemingly impossible can be achieved - if every circle in the never-ending Brexit saga can be squared.

Late signals last night were positive a Brexit deal may finally be in the offing, but in a blow for the proposed agreement, the DUP said this morning it cannot support the deal as it stands.

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The last 24 hours have resembled a scene from Lanigan’s Ball.

Officials were in and out of talks. A deal was on and then off. The pound went up and down. Political parties were on board until they weren’t.

Whither Brexit?

Squinting through the morning sunshine at the Broombridge Luas stop on Wednesday, Paschal Donohoe warned “much work” was outstanding before a deal could be achieved.

Across town in the Aviva Stadium, Taoiseach Leo Varadkar said he had spoken with Boris Johnson and was hopeful. At the same time, chief EU negotiator Michel Barnier told EU commissioners he was optimistic. The soundings were good.

That was until a private briefing emerged from the EU that negotiations were at an “impasse” and that all eyes were on Downing Street. By midday, the DUP’s nerves were evident.

DUP MP Sammy Wilson tweeted the EU and UK negotiators had “no business interfering in the processes for consent” already set out under the Good Friday Agreement. Fault lines were appearing.

A meeting of the EU 27 ambassadors was set back by three hours. Briefings for our political parties were similarly delayed. The DUP were in, reports said; minutes later Arlene Foster dismissed this as “nonsense.”

On and on it went. And then, all briefings were indefinitely put back. Seasoned political commentators admitted they hadn’t a clue what was going to happen. There was a lull in breaking news toward the early evening. Despite the optimism and hope, there was no obvious late breakthrough.

So what is happening?

As Fiach Kelly, Denis Staunton and Patrick Smyth report today here, DUP concerns about a consent mechanism have proven problematic.

They report a revised Brexit deal is expected to be considered by EU leaders at a meeting of the European Council in Brussels today and tomorrow.

“If approved by the summit, Mr Johnson hopes to put the new deal before the House of Commons at a special sitting on Saturday to pave the way for Britain to leave the EU by the October 31st deadline.”

For those just tuning in, the new deal will likely see Northern Ireland remaining part of the UK customs territory but following EU rules on procedures on tariffs to avoid checks on the island of Ireland.

The second major component is around the Northern Ireland Assembly and its consent to such arrangements.

Our three esteemed authors report on how one Government source said Dublin may be open to an “opt-out” mechanism that would require the consent of unionist and nationalist communities in the North to leave such a Northern Ireland-only protocol. Expect the detail on this to be fleshed out today.

A row over whether EU rates of VAT on Northern Ireland also emerged as a sticking point.

Talks with the DUP are due to continue this morning.

Keep an eye on Irishtimes.com for the latest breaking news on this and from that key summit in Brussels.

Meanwhile in Washington . . .

A busy day beckons for Minister for Finance Paschal Donohoe, who has a number of meetings scheduled with senior members of the White House administration.

Mr Donohoe will attend the annual meetings of the World Bank and International Monetary Fund, but also featuring in his diary is a meeting with White House acting chief of staff Mick Mulvaney.

He will also meet Richard Neal, chairman of the House Ways and Means Committee, and Chuck Grassley, chairman of the Senate Finance Committee.

It would seem all things do still come back to Brexit so expect a speech littered with references to the UK’s departure from the EU when Mr Donohoe speaks at the Brookings Institution.

The Minister will deliver a key message: he will stress the need to avoid a hard border on the island of Ireland.

As Suzanne Lynch reports, he will also raise concerns about new tariffs imposed by the US on EU exports, including Irish food products.

Interestingly, he will also meet British chancellor Sajid David. Suzanne will have all the breaking news from the US as the day develops

Best Reads

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A Syrian group claiming to hold Lisa Smith attempts to sell interviews with her, reports Conor Gallagher.

Councillors have been told staff in Dublin City Council have been moved out of positions and areas of the city because of intimidation or threats, reports Olivia Kelly.

US president Donald Trump has defended his decision to withdraw US troops from northern Syria as "strategically brilliant, Suzanne Lynch writes.

Traveller history and culture would feature as an obligatory part of the curriculum at primary and secondary school under a piece of legislation that is being debated in the Oireachtas, report Carl O'Brien and Marie O'Halloran.

Playbook

Dáil

Minister for Education Joe McHugh will take questions on his brief at 10:30am.

Leader’s Questions are up at noon.

At 12:32pm, there are questions on promised legislation.

Government business will be taken at 2:40pm and will include the Family Law Bill and the Social Welfare Bill.

Topical Issues are up at 7:25pm.

The Dáil will adjourn shortly after 8pm.

Committees

The Public Accounts Committee will meet Caranua and officials from the Department of Education at 9am.

The Joint Committee on Foreign Affairs and Trade meets at 9:30am to look at the measures in place to increase access to quality education for girls in developing countries.

At 10am, the Joint Committee on Finance, Public Expenditure and Reform will discuss constitutional issues.