Brexit: Further twists expected after latest Commons defeat for May

Good morning.

The confounding of Great Britain, the immolation of its politics and the undermining of its economy gathers pace, and, as you would expect, it dominates the papers today.

Yesterday the progress of Brexit lurched one way, away from whatever semblance of control the UK's nominal political leader still retained; today, it will likely see another lurch as the House of Commons is likely to vote against a no-deal Brexit. And tomorrow, another, when MPs will probably vote to seek an extension of the Brexit deadline. To what end – there is little agreement.

Our overnight lead is here.

No new checks on goods moving across Border to Northern Ireland in no-deal Brexit

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Theresa May prepares for crucial vote in House of Commons on Tuesday

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Hauliers hopeful on Brexit: ‘A no-deal would be crazy for everybody involved’

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Ruby Walsh more fearful of hard border than Brexit’s risks to racing

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The first day of three of high political and parliamentary drama saw Theresa May’s hopes for her (amended) withdrawal agreement thrashed by a huge majority in the House of Commons, with 75 of her own MPs disregarding her pleas to save a sensible, sustainable implementable Brexit.

True, it was a better result than early January, when the last meaningful vote took place. But it was still a catastrophic defeat on the floor of parliament. Mrs May, who has withstood so much, looked and, due to a sore throat, sounded well and truly defeated.

My analysis is here.

In Dublin and Brussels there was resignation and despair - and sheer bemusement that Mrs May could spend weeks negotiating a deal, fly to Strasbourg to clinch it, put it to the House of Commons - and all the while neglect to get the backing of her attorney general for the plan. To fail to do so when the AG’s legal advice was recognised by every half-witted observer as critical to her chances of passing the vote is simply incomprehensible.

Today comes the no-deal vote on which Mrs May has pronounced a free vote - as if her MPs were taking her instructions seriously anyway. As Denis Staunton observes this morning, “Everything from a soft Brexit involving single market and customs union membership to a general election or a second referendum are now plausible outcomes.

“But a no-deal Brexit remains the default outcome, either on March 29th or a few weeks later, unless a majority of MPs can agree on an alternative. And any fresh option must win the approval of the EU, which is now in a stronger negotiating position than ever.”

Denis's report from the House of Commons yesterday is here, while his analysis is here.

Gerry Moriarty weighs in from Belfast, although the best commentary is probably Martyn Turner's.

Our editorial is here: "The heavy defeat of Theresa May's latest proposals in the House of Commons continues the seemingly endless indecision in UK politics about what shape Brexit should take. The key trade-offs necessary to map a way forward have been dodged time and again."

The British papers are merciless to Mrs May. “May loses control of Brexit after MPs throw out revamped deal,” says the FT. “May clings on despite a second humiliating defeat,” gloats the Telegraph. “Britain in crisis as May loses control of Brexit,” says the Times. “Another huge defeat for May. And just 16 days until Brexit,” says the Guardian. “The House of Fools”, the Daily Mail howls. The Daily Express demands simply: “How much more of this can Britain take?”

Today will be another busy and consequential day. The British government has just released its plans for tariffs and the Border early this morning, which will obviously have huge implications for Irish businesses. The top line is that no new checks on goods moving across Border are proposed under a no-deal Brexit. Denis Staunton's breaking story is here.

The Irish Government kept schtum about it last night, but the BBC’s northern business editor, John Campbell, had suggested the plan would comprise an “honesty box” approach at the Border - meaning no checks and relying on businesses to pay the appropriate tariffs.

Don’t tell the British government, but there may be one or two people around the Border who might forget to pay.

Best reads

Former Irish soldier-turned-Isis-bride Lisa Smith must be allowed to return home, says Kathy Sheridan. But she must also be held accountable for her actions in supporting and enabling a brutal, criminal, genocidal regime.

Simon Carswell is in Cheltenham.

Miriam on how the Dáil walked on eggshells as Westminster went loony over Brexit.

There is a cost overrun on the report into the cost overrun at the national children's hospital.

In the Guardian, Rafael Behr is damning on May: she had one job, and she cannot do it.

Playbook

After the release of the tariff schedules this morning, all eyes will now be on Westminster later.

The Taoiseach has a programme of events in Washington, but he is likely to be called upon to outline the Government plans and response to events in Westminster. He also has to prepare to meet Donald Trump again tomorrow.

In the Dáil, there are health questions, Leaders' Questions and later statements on Brexit, while there is a busy schedule at the committees which includes the incoming chairman of the national children's hospital, representatives of Scouting Ireland and economic discussions with a delegation from the European Commission. Full details of the day at the Oireachtas - the last before the two-week break for St Patrick's Day - are available here.

Keen readers of The Irish Times coverage of Brexit may have noticed on occasion it has been therein observed that we are now nearing the “endgame”. The first line of the Beckett play of the same name reads: “Finished, it’s finished, nearly finished, it must be nearly finished.” Alas, it is not finished, or nearly finished. Nor will it be finished soon. There’s nothing we can do about that. But we can keep you up to date. So we’ll do that. And you have an utterly, totally, Brexity, fruity day.