Beware the Ides of March, er, February

One of the skills required of a political journalist is knowing when and how to make predictions.

Such tasks including calling the date of an election, predicting the outcome of a scandal, or making a clandestine infiltration into the mind of the serving Taoiseach.

What are the necessary attributes required? A tongue in good working condition and a neck manufactured out of the same metallic material as a tuba.

It’s ridiculous.

As ridiculous as Apple’s profit growth continuing at ‘mad per cent’ every year into perpetuity.

As ridiculous as parroting out the hackneyed George Santayana quote even though you are not sure what it really means.

As ridiculous as expecting Galway to win the Liam McCarthy every year even though it's nearly 30 years since they last did it.

As ridiculous as an opinion poll somehow being able to tell us precisely that such-and-such is going to take the last seat in Kerry or in Dublin Bay North.

It’s banal, but we still all buy into this myth-making as if it were fact.

Every political correspondent has already called this election before the stalls have even opened.

To paraphrase my latest political guru, Mary Cowen, we are not even elected yet and here we are already deciding what the next government is going to be.

My task this morning (see the story here) was to write a story with two potentially fatal variables in it. It was deceptively simple.

The first question was: Is Enda Kenny going to call the election today or tomorrow?

The second question was: Is the election going to be held on Thursday the 25th or Friday the 26th of February?

Both were tricky, especially if I got either call wrong. I rang and texted all the people I could using my chirpiest chummiest manner.

No-one really knew but all had hunches.

I had my own hunch too. Was it based on my years of accumulated skill, nous and judgement? Not at all. It was based on a hunch, the same one I had last week when I thought that my ticket would come good for that EUR14 million Lottery jackpot.

Of course, when carefully drafting the story, I gave myself a few get-out clauses so as not to make myself look too silly (we got a bit giddy, after all, when predicting a November election).

For what it’s worth, I think Enda Kenny will make the announcement today for a Friday election.

That prediction might be tempered a little by the last meeting of Fine Gael ministers last night, where some got the impression he might hold off until Wednesday.

I might just be right but that will be down to luck more than anything else. And of course my great sagacity.

Another commission of investigation?

The last Cabinet meeting this morning should have had the lightest agenda possible.

Up until yesterday morning it consisted of three ambassadorial appointments and a number of promotions in the Defence Forces. I kid you not.

And of course, the last-minute instructions to the Cabinet on how to fasten their parachutes.

Instead, ministers will have a matter of real gravity to consider. They must decide if they should establish a commission of investigation into allegations of abuse at a former foster home in the south-east.

Minister for State Kathleen Lynch yesterday said at a press conference she will ask the Cabinet on Tuesday to establish a statutory inquiry into alleged events in the foster home.

Here is Kitty Holland and Fiach Kelly's report on the latest developments.

A lawyer, Conor Dignam SC, has already began work on what amounts to a scoping report for the terms of reference. He is expected to report by April.

The details of the case are terrible and fills one with feelings of sadness and desolation.

It concerns the abuse of a young woman known as Grace who had an intellectual disability and was placed in the home by the HSE in 1989.

She remained in the home for 13 years after allegations of abuse first came to light in 1996 only being removed in 2009. She is said to have suffered serial abuse.

It raises disquieting questions about failures in the HSE at operational, oversight, and supervisory, levels. How could such a situation have been allowed persist? For so many years?

The PAC is due to discuss the HSE report on the matter at noon today but that may be overtaken by the Government decision.

The basis for ordering some commissions and judicial inquiries during this Government’s term has been sketchy indeed. Although this is occurring on probably this Government’s last day, this investigation will be fully justified