Analysis: Michéal Martin looks weak and indecisive

Michéal Martin wouldn't have enjoyed the front page of this morning's Irish Times, with a picture of a smiling Mary Hanafin holding aloft her nomination papers "on behalf of the Fianna Fáil party".

It didn’t suggest she was going to bow to pressure to withdraw from the race, as the Fianna Fáil leadership wanted her to.

She confirmed her intention to stand on RTÉ’s Seán O’Rourke show just before the deadline to withdraw closed at noon.

No matter how the party hierarchy try to spin the debacle of the past few days, this morning’s picture illustrates the simple fact which cannot be changed: Hanafin was asked to stand, and was given her nomination papers. Once that was done, there was effectively no going back. If there was any doubt, the nomination papers shouldn’t have been issued.

There have since been suggestions her nomination was “conditional”, and could have been revoked by party headquarters but the Hanafin camp, and Ms Hanafin herself, strongly dispute this.

They say party headquarters polled the Blackrock ward in Dun Láoghaire-Rathdown County Council but the results showed Kate Feeney, the existing candidate, struggling to take a seat in the now expanded electoral area, which has gone from four to six seats.

A poll with Mary Hanafin on the ticket, it is claimed, showed a jump in Fianna Fáil support and the real possibility of taking two seats.

This is what is claimed Sean Dorgan, the party's general secretary, told Ms Hanafin last Wednesday when he asked her to run.

The to-ing and fro-ing of the past few days have been well documented at this stage, with Ms Hanafin being asked to stand down but submitting her nomintion papers anyway, and will be discussed by the party’s frontbench when it meets today.

However, the initial observations are not good for Mr Martin. He looks both weak and indecisive, and apprently did not consult widely on the move that was being made.

Ms Hanafin herself said Mr Martin asked her three times to pull back, and each time she declined. She said the party outlined good political reasons for her to stand, and no good reasons to withdraw.

Initial anger among the grassroots for bringing back a former minister who just weeks ago called the party’s performance in the capital “awful” and “appalling” has given way to some sympathy for Ms Hanafin.

No matter what the opinion of the former Minister for Education, there is a feeling that she should not have been treated that way. You do not ask someone to run, have her mull over it and consult family and supporters but then try to stop her at the last minute, apparently because of objections raised by the Feeney camp (even though the party hierarchy claims it just realised its original idea wasn’t so smart after all).

The end result is Ms Hanafin will stand, even without the backing of the party. Yet here’s an afterthought, as put by a party TD: how screwed is Fianna Fáil in the capital if it had to beg Ms Hanafin to return?

Maybe she wasn’t wrong when described the party’s prospects as “appalling”.

ENDS