Analysis: Budget success will be helped by fear of failure

Minister for Finance Michael Noonan and Minister for Public Expenditure Paschal Donohoe will deliver the budget in two weeks.

They will tell us the €1 billion available for adjustments in the budget is divided two to one between spending increases and tax cuts. The real split though will be the division of the spoils between Fine Gael, Fianna Fáil and the Independents.

There will be little to fight over but that won’t stop them arguing over the scraps that are not swallowed by cuts in the universal social charge and measures to prevent the backlash from Brexit.

Fine Gael’s goal is to minimise in-house fighting or threats to collapse the Government. For Fianna Fáil the aim is to have influence, but not so much that it can be blamed.

The Independent Alliance will meet today to decide their priorities for the budget. It seems their demand is simple: they want one significant measure that they can claim as their own.

An Alliance TD said: “What we want to do is come out with something that is for the Alliance. In other words, when the budget is announced, there will identifiably be Alliance footprints on the budget.

“We have to do that. We have not done that too well so far, so we have got to do that. We have come to learn what Fianna Fáil want, Fianna Fáil gets, much more than the Alliance.

Negotiations

“We will agree on one or two things that we will push for and I don’t think it will be a problem. We don’t anticipate any danger to the Government on it. We will not be having a hissy fit over this one. The budget, which is being flagged as the difficult one, will actually be very easy. There is a real lack of tension about it.”

Be that as it may be, the Alliance and the other Independents will have a tough task wrestling any potential credit away from Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil.

Micheál Martin’s party has already laid claim to any increases in the old age pension. Whether it be €3 or €5 a week, Fianna Fáil will claim it as its own victory. The party has already begun its negotiations with Fine Gael.

Meetings have already taken place between Donohoe and Fianna Fáil's spokesman on public expenditure Dara Calleary about the mechanics of this budget.

Fianna Fáil has yet to draw up its wish list and will wait until it sees the final figures for September.

However, Martin has made it clear that a pension increase and moves to alleviate the pressures on third-level funding are a must. He will have first sight of the budget, perhaps even before the Cabinet does. He wants this budget passed more than most.

It is being pitched as the first real test of the minority Government but neither Fine Gael, Fianna Fáil nor the Independents want this arrangement to fall yet.